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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

نبدأ بتحليل الدولار الامريكي(بالانجليزي)

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) saw its largest single-week loss since early 2009, sold off sharply as the S&P 500 finished its biggest monthly advance in nearly 25 years. Traders aggressively shed US Dollar-long positions against the Euro and other major counterparts following the announcement of aggressive new aid for Greece and other troubled Euro Zone governments. Overall trends favor further USD declines, but it will be critical to watch major event risk in the week ahead and its effects on broader financial market sentiment.

The US Dollar continues to track movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Average with near-perfect accuracy, and we expect the Greenback to respond to any major shifts in broader market sentiment. With a US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and a US Nonfarm Payrolls report on tap, volatility is virtually guaranteed. And though it may seem counterintuitive at first, we might expect strong US data to drive stocks higher and the domestic currency could actually decline.

Consensus forecasts call for unchanged interest rates from the US Fed and a fairly lackluster gain in October US Nonfarm Payrolls data. Dour economic forecasts make it surprising to see such large advances in the US S&P 500 and general improvements in risk sentiment. Yet we believe that recent rallies in the Dow and simultaneous US Dollar tumbles are a function of short-covering. That is to say, traders are covering previous DJIA-short positions and closing US Dollar-long positions—forcing stocks higher and the safe-haven Greenback lower.

For evidence of such, we only need to look at the recent rate of change in stock markets. In “normal” bull market conditions, price will tend to trend modestly higher while downside corrections are swift and sharp. Fear is a much stronger emotion than greed; price tends to fall much more rapidly than it rallies as traders are likely to head for the exits in a panic. Yet we have most recently seen the opposite; the extreme rallies emphasize that market conditions are far from normal and traders holding short positions are liquidating in a hurry.

We look to the coming days with great interest as the first week of the month often sets the pace for the remainder of the trading period. Thus it will be critical to watch whether the S&P 500 can post further explosive gains and continue its uptrend through the month of November.

Persistent breakdowns in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index suggest that traders are likely to send the USD to fresh lows against major counterparts through the week ahead. This implies that the EURUSD could yet break towards September highs of $1.4280 and perhaps even test key trendline resistance near $1.4400. Of course such moves will greatly depend on the outcome of key event risk—especially with the European Central Bank to deliver a contentious interest rate decision on Thursday.

We anxiously await the first trading week for November. Recent trends suggest the Greenback may continue lower, but key event risk could just as easily drive major price shifts and changes in direction

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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

Perhaps the euro’s most daunting fundamental hurdles in months has passed. And, as expected, the reaction was naturally bullish. The EU Summit this past week was a lightning rod for the market’s fears of a global financial crisis spreading uncontrollably with Greece and the Europe at the center of the storm. Naturally, some sense of ‘resolution’ to this imposing concern lightens the burden on the shared currency and global risk appetite trends. However, a big picture view of this situation tells us that the larger issues are far from resolved. More accurately, policy officials have bought themselves time. However, for investors and traders, time equates to an open window to place capital in depressed assets that are carrying yields that were leveraged during the depths of the crisis.

There is a critical difference between a relief rally and a true bull trend. Though we have just recently the market’s drive the fundamentally-troubled euro higher; we have already seen the signs that the market is making the distinction. In a sustainable ‘bull wave’ it is imperative to draw capital in at higher levels to maintain momentum. Yet, to encourage such aggressive investment, there must be a clear view whereby risk diminishes to boost the relative appeal of return or the potential for a European investment yield itself needs to rise dramatically (beyond the possibility of short-term capital gains on a depressed exchange rate). We simply do not have the case for a strong sustainable advance.

The rally has managed a rally against its benchmark counterpart (the US dollar) since the beginning of October. Notably, this is a move that coincides with the climb from the S&P 500. This suggests that a rebound in speculative interests / risk appetite has been the most influential driver to this point. The encouragement that the EU has stemmed the time of a financial crisis through its Summit really didn’t factor in until the EU and banks reached an agreement for a 50 percent writedown on private Greek bond holdings early Thursday morning. Taking a critical view of the three point approach that was agreed to; the writedown is the only factor that is immediately actionable – and even believable.

For an increasingly skeptical market (there have been many efforts at a rescue before this), the fact that the EFSF is expected to be leveraged by 4 times (to approximately 1 trillion euros) comes into question when we consider the lack of details and the inherent risk in using a bailout program. Furthermore, the bank recapitalization scheme sets an aggressive 9 percent core tier one capital ratio; but the 106 billion euro expected funding need smacks of an underestimate akin to past Stress Tests and forcing the banks to ask a skeptical market first is an unfavorable confidence vote that could stir fear once again. We may find more details next week to their process and approach when the G20 meets in Cannes, France Thursday and Friday; but we won’t likely receive serious details until the November 8th Summit.

We will fully be concentration this coming week on risk appetite trends for euro guidance. Should the October rally that has carried sentiment for the fundamentally-troubled and speculatively-depressed alike falter, the Euro’s heavy risk going forward could easily swamp the measured return potential for the currency and its assets. Potentially cutting the return factor even further, we have the ECB rate decision on Thursday. The economist and market consensus is for no change under new President Mario Draghi; but there is a small contingent calling for a cut. After the efforts made this past week on the fiscal front, it is not so far-fetched to see a cut. A reduction is not priced in; and that creates a serious ‘fat tail’ situation. An interesting question though: could a cut be seen as encouraging?

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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

الين الياباني

The Japanese Yen advanced to a fresh record-high in October and the USD/JPY may trend lower in the month ahead as market participants diversify away from the reserve currency. Indeed, the dollar-yen slipped to 75.65 following a shift in trader sentiment, but threatens of a Yen intervention may dampen demands for the low-yielding currency as the government pledges to balance the risks surrounding the region.

Japan’s Finance Minister, Jun Azumi, vowed to take ‘bold’ actions against the Yen as the marked appreciation in the local currency dampens the prospects for an export-led recovery, and the government may make a greater push to specifically target the exchange rate as the fundamental outlook for the world’s third-largest economy deteriorates. Nevertheless, it seems as though the Bank of Japan will continue to take a different route as it expands its nonstandard program by another JPY 5 trillion, and the central bank may resort to easing monetary policy further rather than intervening in the currency market. Indeed, the BoJ voted 8-1 to increase its asset purchases, with board member Ryuzo Miyao arguing for a JPY 10 trillion expansion, and we are likely to see the central bank take additional steps to shore up the ailing economy as it aims ‘to ensure a successful transition to a sustainable growth path with price stability.’ However, retail traders continue to look for a bottom in the USD/JPY as the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment index currently stands at a whopping 14.99, and the contrarian indicator foreshadows lower prices for the pair as market participants try to fade the recent strength in the Yen.

As the USD/JPY resumes the downward trend carried over from back in 2007, we are likely to see fresh record-low prices in November, and the BoJ may have little choice but to expand monetary policy further as government officials maintain a cautious outlook for the region. Nevertheless, there is a risk of seeing a short-term correction next week should the relative strength index continue to hold above 30, but the exchange rate may extend the decline from earlier this month if the oscillator pushes into oversold territory

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.................................................. ............................................

http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

الكيبل

The British Pound had a rough week relative to the commodity currencies and its European counterparts, falling mostly across the board while only posting gains against the Japanese Yen and the Greenback. While the 1.10 percent gain the Sterling had against the U.S. Dollar was a welcomed continuation of its rebound, it appears that the GBP/USD will unable to hold above the psychologically significant 1.6000 exchange rate for much longer, given the fundamental outlook for the British economy.

Looking ahead to the coming week, there are three data releases that stick out on the economic docket that will likely weigh on the Pound going forward. On Monday, consumer credit figures are due for September, and initial estimates forecast a slowdown in household borrowing. According to a Bloomberg News survey, consumer credit is expected to contract to £0.4 billion from £0.5 billion in August, a reversal of the rebound that has been in place since May. Net consumer credit remains below its 2011 peak, at £0.8 billion, as price pressures have weighed on house borrowing and spending over the course of the year.

Also on Monday with housing data is due, markets will get a closer look at how the British housing sector is developing. While house price data is due the day before, and is forecasted to show a slight improvement, the lending side is not supportive of a recovery or growth. In line with the forecasted decrease in net consumer credit, mortgage approvals are forecast to come in at 50.5K, down from the prior month’s reading. If potential homebuyers are unable to receive a line of credit to purchase a residence, it is unlikely that the British housing market has bottomed, yet.

The most important release of the week comes on Tuesday, however, when the third quarter growth reading will be released. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the British economy experienced slower economic growth at a pace of 0.4 percent year-over-year, down from 0.6 percent in the second quarter. Data from the second quarter didn’t paint an optimistic picture for the future of the British economy. Exports fell during the second quarter, down 1.3 percent, even as the Sterling was weaker across the board against its European counterparts and the U.S. Dollar. The other components of the recent growth reading were hardly encouraging: consumer spending dropped by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, while investment rebounded slightly, up 3.8 percent year-over-year.

Other health barometers of the British economy suggest that growth is likely to slow further in the future. Inflation is now at a 5.2 percent clip as per the most recent reading in September, above the 4.9 percent predicted rate. Recent output data has shown signs of deterioration as well, with industrial production falling by 1.0 percent in August, year-over-year, and manufacturing data falling short of expectations, down to 1.5 percent from 2.6 percent, year-over-year, in August. As such, a lower reading is expected, and a print below the expected figure is not out of the question

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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

الذهب

Gold was higher by more than 6% on the week as a massive sell-off in the US dollar saw trader diversify into the yellow metal which posted its largest weekly advance since January of 2009. Concerns over a possible default in Europe subsided after EU officials agreed on a rescue package to shore up banks and avert a Greek credit event. The subsequent surge in risk appetite prompted investors to jettison the greenback in favor of higher yielding growth linked assets.

From a fundamental standpoint, gold looks poised for further advances on the back of renewed optimism regarding the domestic economy. As traders go back on the hunt for yields, the dollar will likely remain under pressure which will in turn prop up commodity prices. On the other hand if concerns regarding the economy persist, increased speculation of another round of quantitative easing from the Fed may also weigh on the greenback, which again would lead to further advances in gold which is seen as a safe store of value as well as a hedge against inflation.

The FOMC rate decision on Wednesday presents the most significant event risk for gold next week. Although the central bank is certain to hold interest rates at 0.25%, the accompanying statement may show a more upbeat assessment of the economy after a string of stronger than expected economic data this month saw recessionary concerns subside. However despite the advance in equities, ongoing concerns about global growth prospects may see the Fed maintain a cautious outlook while leaving the door open for further easing measures as the central bank looks to maintain its wait-and-see approach. Although the situation in Europe may have subsided in the interim, ongoing fears of a slowdown in China and Japan linger with gold likely to remain well supported on the back of haven flows.

Gold has now advanced 8.7% off last Thursday’s low at $1603 and staggering 13.7% off the September 26th low at $1532. This week, the precious metal broke back above the key 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the August 25th and September 26th troughs at $1665 as the rally in commodities gathered pace. The week closed just below the 100% Fibonacci extension t 1750 where interim resistance now holds. A breach here eyes subsequent topside targets at $1770, $1800, and $1840. Initial support rests at $1730 backed by the 76.4% extension at $1700 and $1675

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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

الدولار الكندي

The Canadian Dollar remains intimately anchored to broad-based market sentiment trends, with prices showing a firm correlation to the S&P 500. The benchmark stock index represents investors’ collective priced-in expectations of future earnings of the world’s top companies, and so acts as a proxy for the market-wide outlook on the pace of global economic growth. This speaks directly to Canada’s own performance – which naturally sets the trajectory for its monetary policy and thereby the Canadian Dollar – considering the country is highly sensitive to the worldwide business cycle both as a commodity producer and as a key exporter to the globe’s largest economy, the US.

With this in mind, it is not surprising that the Canadian Dollar surged to the highest in a month last week as investors cheered on the moderation in all three of the major headwinds that had been weighing on economic growth expectations. The threat of an immediate meltdown on the Euro Zone periphery was reduced – at least for now – after an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels concluded with policymakers throwing more money at the problem. Third-quarter US GDP figures showed growth accelerated to the strongest pace in a year, warding off double-dip recession fears. Finally, official commentary from China began to carry subtle hints that monetary tightening was done and credit may even be loosened in pockets of the economy, stoking hopes that a hard landing in the world’s second-largest economy was not to be.

While this paints a rosy picture of the so-called Loonie’s prospects, not all is well. Last week, the Bank of Canada took a decisive turn toward the dovish side of the spectrum, lowering its GDP outlook and conspicuously removing language referencing the unwinding of monetary stimulus in its policy statement. The monthly GDP update to be released on Monday is forecast to show the annual growth rate slowed to 2.2 percent in August, a hair above the 16-month low of 2.1 percent recorded in June, while employment data due Friday is expected to yield a paltry 15,000 jobs increase in October, reinforcing priced-in bets that rates will be at a standstill for the coming year.

On balance, this makes for a clouded outlook for the Canadian currency in the week ahead, with much likely to depend on the deluge of US scheduled event risk packed into the economic calendar. Indeed, October’s manufacturing and service-sector ISM readings, the FOMC policy announcement, and the always closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls jobs report are all set to cross the wires. Meanwhile, the backdrop will be shaped by an increasingly murky situation on the Euro Zone debt crisis front as initial euphoria fades and investors begin to grumble at the many sweeping assumptions and vague proposals beneath the cheery headlines. While clearly relieved to an extent, investors remain aloof after many false starts on growth and the EU debt issue over the past 2.5-3 years, so last week’s positive news-flow will need to be sustained in order for risk-linked assets including the Canadian Dollar to remain supported.

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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

الاسترالي

The Australian Dollar was the best performing major currency on the week against the U.S. Dollar, posting a 3.12 percent amid the flurry of buying across all asset classes. Although the Aussie fell back from its highest level against the U.S. Dollar in two-months, set on Thursday at 1.0752, the lack of conviction behind the pullback suggests that there is still some further potential to the upside as November begins. Still, with the Euro-zone debt crisis merely on pause coupled with softer-than-expected inflation numbers from the third quarter, interest rate expectations in the medium-term have started to weaken.

In the early part of the week the AiG performance of manufacturing index will be released, which has shown that Australian production has been contracting. The index has no forecast figure, but the recent trend has been increasingly negative since the index’s peak in June at 52.9, the last time manufacturing activity grew in 2011. The 42.3 reading in September signals a deeper contraction, as a reading below 50.0 signals receding manufacturing activity.

The most important event of the week comes on Tuesday, when the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its November policy meeting. In spite of the recent rally the Aussie has experienced since October 4, a teetering Australian economy suggests lower rates are on the horizon. According to the Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps, there is an 85.0 percent chance of a 25-basis point rate cut at the central bank meeting on Tuesday. Accordingly, 102-basis points are being priced out over the next 12-months, indicating a cut in the rate is coming down the pipe.

A rate cut is a likely scenario, if not at this meeting, at one of the upcoming ones. As per the RBA’s October meeting minutes, the central bank believes that “it was likely that growth over the forecast period would be somewhat slower and that the labor market would be less tight than forecast.” On the same note, they said that “this prospect, as well as the lower starting point for inflation, meant that the inflation outlook appeared less concerning than was the case a few months ago.” Given these observations, it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia is becoming increasingly dovish. While concerns over the Australian economy are limited in scope, any pullback in Australian growth is likely to be provoked by broader global macroeconomic trends. This has translated into a weaker Australian Dollar over the third quarter of 2011 (at Friday’s close, it was still over 2 percent below its all-time high set in July), as interest rate expectations have deteriorated sharply in recent weeks, a trend that is expected to continue.

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نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

برلين (رويترز) - قال رئيس البنك المركزي الاوروربي جان كلود تريشيه في مقابلة مع صحيفة ألمانية من المقرر نشرها يوم الاحد ان أزمة الديون السيادية في منطقة اليورو لم تنته بعد وان الوقت مازال مبكرا لكي نقول ان كل شيء على ما يرام.

وفي المقابلة التي من المقرر ظهورها في عدد الاحد من صحيفة فيلت ام زونتاج قال تريشيه انه على الرغم من ذلك واثق من قدرة حكومات منطقة اليورو على استعادة الاستقرار المالي بشرط تفعيل قواعد اتفاقية الاستقرار الخاصة بالمنطقة بشكل شامل وأكثر قوة.

وقال ان الاتفاقات التي توصل اليها زعماء الاتحاد الاوروبي هذا الاسبوع يجب سنها على نحو بالغ الدقة والسرعة.

وأضاف أن البنك المركزي الاوروبي سيتابع بدقة تقدم تدابير الاصلاح التي تتخذها الحكومات وقال ان الوقت حان "لرؤية بعض التحركات الملوسة".

وقال تريشيه للصحيفة الالمانية بحسب النص الاولي الصادر في وقت مبكر يوم السبت "لم تنته الازمة بعد".

وصرح تريشيه في واحدة من اخر المقابلات التي يجريها في فترة توليه قيادة البنك المركزي الاوروبي قائلا "ولكن بعد القرارات التي اتخذت هذا الاسبوع فاني على ثقة رغم كل شيء في نجاح الحكومات في استعادة الاستقرار المالي."

وقال ان ذلك يتطلب "تطبيق قواعد اتفاقية الاستقرار والنمو على نحو أكثر دقة وقوة."

وقال "تحتاج القرارات التي جرى التوصل اليها في القمة الى تنفيذ دقيق للغاية وفي التوقيت المناسب. يمتلك زعماء حكومات منطقة اليورو برنامجا ويقع الان أمام هذه الحكومات والمفوضية الاوروبية الاضطلاع بالعمل الشاق."

وقال تريشيه ان سرعة وتمام تنفيذ وتفعيل القرارات أمر حاسم للغاية الان.

وصرح بأن البنك المركزي الاوروبي سيتابع هذه العملية عن كثب.

وقال "سنحتاج الان لرؤية بعض التحركات الملموسة

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نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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اسونسيون (رويترز) - قال مصدر بالحكومة البرتغالية ان البرتغال طلبت من المكسيك يوم السبت أن تبلغ سائر أعضاء مجموعة العشرين أنه يتعين على الولايات المتحدة عرض تقديم "مساعدة مالية" لحل أزمة الديون السيادية بمنطقة اليورو واصفة اياها بالمشكلة "الشاملة والعالمية".

وأبلغ المصدر الصحفيين أن رئيس الوزراء البرتغالي بيدرو باسوس كويليو طلب من الرئيس المكسيكي فيليبي كالديرون أن ينقل رسالته أثناء اجتماع مجموعة العشرين في مدينة كان الفرنسية الاسبوع القادم.

وكان المصدر يتحدث بعد اجتماع للزعيمين خلال القمة الايبيرية الامريكية في باراجواي

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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113