تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

MAHMOUD_IM

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تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق : أكثر من 5 سنوات

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:14 PM

تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

USDJPY

Market trading sideways in a 105.70 – 102.57 range after the 9 count sell signal on April 29th. Given the proximity to the upper reaches of the year-long downtrend channel, I still feel we are more likely to see a downside resolution played out over the next couple of weeks. Support through 102.57 remains at the key TDST line from the sell set-up at 101.71. A close below here suggests we will re-test the 95.78 lows going forward. Resistance above the 104.39 pivot point remains at 105.70 ahead of TDST resistance from the daily chart at 108.18 which I continue to favour not will be breached on a closing basis. The house view continues to be that the recent weekly close below 102.10 suggests the market will get to 80 before the USD bear can be considered over.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:15 PM

GBPUSD

Cable bouncing after Friday’s 9 count buy set-up having survived a fresh attempt to take out the 1.9339 key support last week. Given the big rise in UK yields last week after the inflation data and BoE quarterly inflation report, cable has scope to push higher through resistance in the 1.96 region to test TDST resistance at 1.9772. Support through the 1.9523 pivot point remains at the key 1.9339 Gann level. A close below here suggests a swift encounter with a band of support in the 1.86-1.88 region.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:20 PM

EURUSD

Market finally sprang to life on Friday with the potential inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on the hourly charts coming back into focus. An hourly close above 1.56 suggests we have scope to stretch to the H&S target at 1.5902. Intermediate resistance seen at 1.5690 and I continue to favour the market will struggle to take out TDST resistance at 1.6004 on the first attempt. Though my thoughts remain we are in a consolidation phase here, it is worth noting AUDUSD looks to have broken its rangebound shackles and the our house view remains we will see an upside resolution going forward in EURUSD. Support seen at the 1.5516 pivot point ahead of hourly TDST support at 1.5395 and the recent lows around 1.5286. The market continues to be able to withstand a move to the top of the Nov07 – Feb08 consolidation around 1.4950 – 1.5000 whilst in the auspices of a long-term bull market. Further out we continue to favour a move to 1.70 by Mar09.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:22 PM

USDCHF

Market still stuck in short-term ranges looking for a resolution of the 1.0390 – 1.0622 consolidation. A close higher into new territory risks an extended advance to 1.0733 and potentially the key TDST level at
1.1033. Support through the Friday 9th 1.0390 low seen at 1.0290-95 ahead of a more concerted move lower to TDST support at 0.9958. From a longer-term structural viewpoint we continue to look for the market to trade significantly lower in the medium/long-term towards the 85 region. The Swiss franc would likely be a prime beneficiary should the equity markets head lower as suggested at the start of this report

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:23 PM

USDCAD

Market continuing with its tightening consolidation pattern beneath TDST resistance at 1.0317, which has capped the market since late January. Moving averages have unwound their extreme divergences over the past few months and we now favour a resumption of the bear-trend. TDMA1 suggests shorts on closes below 1.0028 tonight. We have moved sideways through the uptrend drawn from the November 7th spike low and continue to await a close below 6 week range lows at 0.9989 (we have had an intraday break on 4 of the last 5 sessions) to signal a test of downside TDST support from the late December 07 sell set-up at 0.9765. We continue to feel we will revisit the 2007 lows over the medium/longer-term.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:43 PM

AUDUSD

Bursting higher to finally eclipse the series of highs around the 0.95 level posted since the end of February. This remains in line with our medium-term view of parity for the pairing, but does leave the Aussie Dollar a little isolated in terms of it progression against the dollar (note EURUSD is 4 big figures from its all time high and USDJPY is 8 points from its March 08 low). Today sees yet another 13 count for the Aussie, in TD Combo, and leaves the charts with 3 trend exhaustion counts valid in TD Sequential and 2 on TD Combo which makes me very nervous in chasing the market here in the short term, especially in light of the potential reversal signals in Stock markets which would probably see AUDJPY and AUDCHF getting hit. Note also the 13 count on weekly TD Combo last week (Weekly TD Sequential is on a 12 count this week) which strengthens the argument for a false break here and an imminent turnaround. If one does want to buy this breakout, it may be prudent to buy some one month AUDJPY or AUDCHF downside protection via the options market. Resistance seen at 0.9567 and 0.9630. 0.9500 reverts to support ahead of the 0.9471 pivot and 0.9276.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:46 PM

GBPJPY

Market drifting sideways with TDMA1 off the charts as the consolidatory malaise continues. TDST support on the hourly chart seen at 203.15 with bids through 199.82 likely at 198.10 and 196.86. Resistance above 205 seen at 209.95 ahead of daily TDST resistance at 213.78. We continue to be long term bears of the cross and feel it has potential to visit 157-160 in due course. The potential reversal signals in European stock markets make me feel we may see a downside break soon in the cross.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:50 PM

EURJPY
Market stopped just shy of resistance at 163.07 with further offers through here remaining at 163.89 and 164.97. Support at 161.74 survived an examination on Friday with next downside levels seen at 160.07
and 158.62. No massive view here, but continue to be happy attempting a small tactical short on a move to 164.50 with stops above 165.50 looking for a move back towards the 158 region.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:51 PM

Gold

Continuing it progression after breaking the downtrend from the 1032.70 peak at the back end of last week. TDMA1 on the charts now to underpin the advance, suggesting a long position on closes above 892 this evening. The current price action starting to suggest our initial Gann target of 847 may prove to be a decent base level going forward. Note that last week saw a 9 count buy set-up on the weekly charts – the first time such a formation has occurred since October 2006 when the market closed at 574.10, a level not subsequently breached on a closing basis. Should the market drift below the recent 847 lows then weekly TDST support at 805.05 and our second downside Gann target at 767 come back into focus. We remain long-term bullish looking for at least 1058 and potentially 1205 during the course of 2008.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

10#

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:54 PM

مزيد من التوضيح كانت النقاط السابقة عن بداية الاسبوع نستعرعض الان التحديث

20-5-2008

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المواضيع المتشابهه
الموضوع	كاتب الموضوع	المنتدى	مشاركات	آخر مشاركة
تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"	MAHMOUD_IM	منتدى تداول العملات العام	45	22 - 04 - 2009 12:49 AM

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