رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
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Dow Jones We sent a piece to our clients in February indicating a fast drop to 12,000 for the Dow. This duly appeared. It is our view that the market is poised at a very difficult position. Certainly it explains a lot of the reason for the pricing action at current levels. In the chart we expect to see the Dow to fall to 9,937 around the end of May to the second week of June. This should be possible if the 11,750 level is removed to a close. The FOMC is also coming in and acting with all kind of measures at 11,750 and this is also an indication to us that they are also acutely aware of the current dangers at the recent lows. If these lows are removed then the weight of expectation will force the Dow into a very uncomfortable position. Looking at the Gann analysis, we would expect that the market should be able to see a fall to the 9,937 level and the pressures are mounting for this to occur. In standard analysis we are looking at a head and shoulders top with both shoulders indicated on the chart. Again this move also measures to 9,937. We believe that the pressure is very clearly in play and the market is making high volatility moves at the lows and this is normally associated with continuation downside moves. It is our expectation that the current patterning should force the FOMC’s hand before the 18th but we feel that there is a chance that they will be able to hold off so long as the 11,750 level is supported. Even if the FOMC does act with another rescue and further rate cuts we feel that the die has been cast and the downside is looking the stronger of the two paths. As such we are aware that the market is still liable for sharp corrections to the topside and do not rule out another potential run to 12,765 but this we would be using as a strong bear entry point. If the downside is taken through we would join the move as it could become very accelerated. The market is rejecting the 12,242 topside level and as long as this continues we would be happier to be a bear than a bull. The bears should leave if this level is taken. This a balance line and as such should be able to resist the topside moves. Again its projection low is aimed at the same level of 9,937 around the end of May beginning of June.
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