Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

CADJPY Technical Analysis April 13/2017

CADJPY has been moving lower since December 2016. Price is entering an area where the pair can possibly bounce and reverse higher. There are a couple bullish patterns that seem to be forming and traders need to wait and see if CADJPY will find a bottom and terminate the bearish cycle that it is currently in.

Daily Chart Bullish Patterns : On the CADJPY Daily chart two visible bullish patterns can be seen (Blue, Red). The blue bullish pattern triggers a BUY at the point D BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level. Price has still yet to touch this level and will need another move lower to trigger. The red falling wedge bullish pattern has still yet to break above the top of the wedge/diagonal. A break above the red pattern wedge can signal that CADJPY has possibly bottomed and is ready to start a new cycle higher.



If looking to buy CADJPY traders should be patient and wait for price to make a move lower to the possible bounce zone (light blue box) and towards the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level at 81.84. Waiting for price to hit the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement will offer a better risk/reward trade setup. Another scenario is traders can wait for price to break above the red wedge pattern. At this current moment above 84.18 confirms the breakout higher. Blue bullish pattern is invalidated if price moves below point B of the pattern.

EURNZD Double Three Elliott Wave Structure

EURNZD rally this week failed as pair found sellers in 1.5355 – 1.5399 area and made new lows below 1.5149 low. With the new low seen today, pair is now showing 5 swings sequence down from 3/24 (1.5485) peak. 5 swings means the sequence is incomplete and pair is in need of another swing lower to complete 7 swings sequence or a double three Elliott wave structure down from 3/24 (1.5485) peak. Decline from 1.5485 to 1.5149 was corrective and hence labeled as ((w)). Bounce to 1.5357 was also corrective and hence labeled wave ((x)). As initial decline from 1.5485 – 1.5149 was corrective, that means decline from 1.5357 should also be in a corrective sequence.

Pair made a new low below 1.5149 and reached 0.618 – 0.764 Fibonacci extension area of ((w))-((x)), this is the typical area for 5th swing to end in a 7 swings sequence. Therefore, from this area, we can see a bounce in the pair to correct the decline from 1.5357 high and then it should turn lower again again. It remains to be seen how big the bounce would be but it should unfold in 3, 7 or 11 swings and 50 – 61.8 Fibonacci retracement area lies between 1.5236 – 1.5265. As far as 1.5357 high remains intact, we expect the bounce to fail and pair to continue lower towards 1.5020 – 1.4940 area to complete a double three (7 swings) Elliott wave structure down from 1.5485 peak. Afterwards, pair should bounce again to correct the decline from 1.5485 peak or at least from 1.5357 high.

EURNZD Elliott Wave Analysis

KBW Bank Index Extended Correction

KBW Bank Index is an economic index consisting of the stocks of 24 banking companies delivering a direct exposure to the banking sector and offering a targeted view to a unique corner of the U.S. financial sector. The top holdings Banks of the index are among the biggest financial institutes in the world and most of them will report earning during this week ( Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America). These companies have a big influence on the financial sector that can be measured by the ETF (XLF), which was up 30% from last year until last month, we mentioned in our previous financial article that XLF was reaching an inflection area which provided the expected pullback.
How this move is affecting the Banking sector ? Let’s find out by using the Elliott Wave Theory to analyze BKX.

KBW Bank Index Elliott Wave View
BKX made 5 swings bullish sequence from 2009 low which is different from the 5 impulsive waves used in Elliott Wave Theory. The advance is a part of the double three structure that KBW Bank Index is doing and after reaching the 61.8 – 76.4 fib ext area it started the 6th swing pullback against 2016 low. The retrace in wave ((X)) would ideally reach the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 78.11 – 72.94 area before BKX can resume it’s move to the upside. However market isn’t perfect and we can’t determine how the pullback will unfold exactly so even a small 3 waves pullback can be enough to end it there.



To determine the potential pullback area, we take a look at the daily chart as the Index ended the 2016 cycle at 03/01/2017 peak from which it’s started a Zigzag structure. So BKX can still extend lower toward equal legs area 81.84 – 79.10 from which it can resume higher or bounce in 3 waves at least.



If the bounce is not strong enough and the Index fails to break above 99.84 peak, then it will have the possibility of doing the double three correction lower toward the 61.8%-76.4% area and retesting the 2009 trend-line before it can be able to resume it’s uptrend.



Recap
KBW Bank Index longer term technical structure remain bullish while it’s holding above 2016 low 55.99. But we need further data before we can determine if the index will be able to rally for new highs after this current shallow daily correction or it needs more time to consolidate. This decline will affect the whole Financial sector and its stocks can be fading the so called Trump rally so you need to be careful about holding a bank stock during this pullback.

EURAUD Technical Analysis April 17/2017

On April 11/2017 bears pushed EURAUD lower and it seems lower prices are yet to come in the following trading sessions. At the current moment, bias remains bearish and traders should look for any possible selling opportunities.

1 Hour Chart Bearish Pattern: Bearish pattern is visible on short term analysis but traders need to be patient and wait for price to retrace higher towards the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level and wait for the point D (blue pattern) to enter the possible reversal zone (blue box) to trigger sells. We do not recommend buying the pair to the proposed selling zone but rather advise to wait for price to enter the possible reversal zone and look for selling opportunities. There is also support/resistance levels near the BC 0.50% Fib. level so we should expect a reaction/reversal in price action in this area. Only time will tell what EURAUD will do but for now bias remains bearish.



If looking to sell EURAUD traders should wait for price to move above the BC 0.50% and watch for price to stall in the possible reversal zone (blue box) for any selling opportunities. Waiting for price to move above the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level will offer a better risk/reward trade setup. A break above the point B high will invalidate the bearish pattern. If the pair moves lower from the possible reversal zone traders should place targets below the AB 2.24% level.

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade.