تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

MAHMOUD_IM

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تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

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رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

31#

17 - 06 - 2008, 11:25 AM

EURUSD Bouncing from the 1.53 handle where we favoured a tactical long, but it still looks like a range trade for a while to come. With TD sequentials remaining on an 11 count today, there remains the possibility of some residual downside pressure before we test resistance at 1.58+ and 1.6007. Not much more to add unfortunately - Medium-term range remains 1.4950 – 1.6004/7. Short-term range 1.5282 – 1.5850. Favoured trade, buy with a 1.53 handle, sell with a 1.58 handle - close positions somewhere in the middle dependant on your stop parameters. Alternatively, await a dip to 1.50 to enter structural longs or buy a close above 1.6140 aggressively for a sharp move to 1.70. Note 2 weekly bearish engulfing candles in recent weeks, but we saw similar price action towards the latter stages of the Nov-Feb consolidation before an aggressive 5 week advance.

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-17_121529.jpg‏ (117.4 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 2)

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MAHMOUD_IM

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تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

32#

17 - 06 - 2008, 11:27 AM

USDCHF Another rangy market where we have a longer-term USD bear bias. TD Sequentials remain on bar 12 of a rather flat sell countdown suggesting fading rallies to the upper limits of the consolidation zone remains favoured (1.0630). Support seen at 1.0377 ahead of 1.0300 and 1.0144. Resistance at 1.0525/32 continues to cap the upside in the very short-term. A daily close through 1.0630 would potentially suggest a rally to TDST resistance at 1.1037, where I would favour entering aggressive structural shorts, but the likelihood of a 13 count on Sequentials when a 1.0630+ close occurs would suggest this favoured level may be unachievable. Hourly charts (below) giving a little Head and Shoulders pattern at present with hourly TDST support broken on bar 7 of a but set-up, suggesting a short-term downside follow through here to around 1.0245. Long-term target remains 85.

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-17_121529.jpg‏ (118.8 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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MAHMOUD_IM

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تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

33#

17 - 06 - 2008, 11:38 AM

USDCAD No change in view here as I continue to like the Loonie and maintain a selling bias for USDCAD on move to 1.0323. TDMA1 has traceked the move higher from around 1.0050 and suggests longs on closes above 1.0199 tonight, but the recent 9 count sell set-up near the range highs leads me to believe the nears will regain control here. I would look to take back shorts placed above 1.03 at around parity as the market continues to have a rangy feel to it, and I wouldn’t look at selling weakness in the market unless we get a qualified break through the now higher TDST support at 0.9869. Medium term target remains the 2007 lows of 0.9057

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-17_121529.jpg‏ (138.7 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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MAHMOUD_IM

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تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

34#

17 - 06 - 2008, 11:40 AM

AUDUSD Market unable to get down to the downside target zone of 0.9277 -0.9304 where I was looking to take back tactical shorts entered at 0.9632. TDMA1 resistance on the daily charts at 0.9431 today, so worth using that as a trailing stop for these shorts on a daily closing basis. Market oin a 7 count buy set-up presently, but we will need to manufacture a close below 0.9346 on Thursday for the full 9 count to play out. Downside moves seen as counter-trend – we continue to look for parity further out – but it’s worth noting AUDJPY is on a 12 count sell sell-up in TD Combo which is a perennially violent cross when it wants to turn tail

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-17_121529.jpg‏ (129.8 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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MAHMOUD_IM

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تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

35#

17 - 06 - 2008, 11:44 AM

GBPJPY Market on an 8 count sell set-up today as we sit just below the favoured selling level at 213.78 TDST resistance. UK CPI may give the market the boost it needs to get there so I would be working some resting offers in the region over the release. TDMA1 suggests tactical longs on closes above 210.54 today but our longer-term bear view and the chance of entering some structural shorts with good risk reward are dominating my thoughts at the moment. Former resistance reverts to support at 209.12 but we continue to look for a long-term move to the 157-160 region and, in this framework, the risk reward will be heavily in your favour at shorting the market should we rally to 213.00/78 with a 220.50 stop looking for 160. I have added MACD with TD Combo attached….it hit a 13 count yesterday….

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-17_121529.jpg‏ (136.1 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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MAHMOUD_IM

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تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

36#

17 - 06 - 2008, 11:45 AM

EURJPY TDMA1 continues to suggest a long position on closes above 166.17, but the market will post a 9 count sell set-up today, still below the risk level from the recent 13 count sequential sell countdown at 168.38. Risk reward may be starting to turn in favour of a tactical short here with pullbacks to TDST support at 162.22 possible. Not my favourite cross as I like both currencies from a long-term perspective, but we are near levels where the market failed in July, October and November 2007 so I’d rather be a small bear here. Again, the MACD histogram produced a 13 count on TD Combo recently It happened 4 sessions ago – hard to spot on the chart but I promise you it’s there

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-17_121529.jpg‏ (160.0 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

37#

18 - 06 - 2008, 11:06 AM

اليوم 18-6-2008

USDJPY 24 hours hasn’t brought much of a change to the outlook as we continue to hover around the favoured selling level at 108.18 TDST resistance just below the 200dma at 108.22. We have posted both a 13 count sell countdown on TD Sequentials and a supplementary 9 count sell set-up. The combo count on the MACD histogram is up to bar 12 suggesting a turn tomorrow. It’s a full moon, bond markets look to have based and I look for 109.25 (the risk level from the Sequential count) to cap the market on a closing basis going forward. TDMA1 continues to suggest a tactical long on closes above 107.73 tonight, but I always favour 13 counts on TD Sequentials to act as the dominant force when it shows up. I am looking for a move to 104.39/101.80, with the 95.71 lows being taken out in the longer-term

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-18_113247.jpg‏ (144.5 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

38#

18 - 06 - 2008, 11:08 AM

GBPUSD Daily chart continuing to suggest consolidation and though we favour a downside break eventually, the risk reward on being short in the 1.9339-1.95 zone is about as good as the French were in the football last night. TDST resistance remains at 1.9776 with tactical shorts still favoured on a re-test of strong resistance in the 1.9850 region. I continue to favour only selling into weakness on a close below 1.9939 which should predicate a swift move lower to the 1.88/86 region. Hourly charts look a lot more fun with the 13 count sell signal on this timeframe yesterday predicating a sharp reverse. The decline, however, did not breach the hourly TDST support at 1.9456 and this becomes the key focus from a short-term perspective now. We could produce a 9 caount hourly buy set-up next hour (at 1100cet) if we get a couple of hourly closes below 1.9525 and if this occurs expect a bounce through 1.9583 to re-test the high 1.96’s.

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-18_113247.jpg‏ (120.6 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

39#

18 - 06 - 2008, 11:09 AM

EURUSD I am finding it hard to get excited from a structural point of view as I still feel we’ll be ranging for a while yet. TD sequentials remain on an 11 count so there remains the possibility of some residual downside pressure before we test resistance at 1.58+ and 1.6007. Medium-term range remains 1.4950 – 1.6004/7. Short-term range 1.5282 – 1.5850. Favoured trade, buy with a 1.53 handle, sell with a 1.58 handle - close positions somewhere in the middle dependant on your stop parameters. Alternatively, await a dip to 1.50 to enter structural longs or buy a close above 1.6140 aggressively for a sharp move to 1.70. Note 2 weekly bearish engulfing candles in recent weeks, but we saw similar price action towards the latter stages of the Nov-Feb consolidation before an aggressive 5 week advance. I am struggling to find something interesting to say so I have added a rather tenuous inverse Head and Shoulders formation on the hourly chart – it suggests an hourly close above 1.5550 will see a move to around 1.5830

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-18_113247.jpg‏ (131.7 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

40#

18 - 06 - 2008, 11:12 AM

USDCHF 2 big figures from support, 2 big figures from resistance....there are better things to trade at the moment. TD Sequentials remain on bar 12 of a rather flat sell countdown suggesting fading rallies to the upper limits of the consolidation zone remains favoured (1.0630). Support seen at 1.0377 ahead of 1.0300 and 1.0144. Resistance at 1.0525/32 continues to cap the upside in the very short-term. A daily close through 1.0630 would potentially suggest a rally to TDST resistance at 1.1037, where I would favour entering aggressive structural shorts, but the likelihood of a 13 count on Sequentials when a 1.0630+ close occurs would suggest this favoured level may be unachievable. Long-term target remains 85. The hourly chart shown yesterday never achieved a qualified close below TDST support and it now looks stuck in a terribly tight 1.0374 – 1.0464 range

الصور المرفقة

2008-06-18_113247.jpg‏ (112.6 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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