USDJPY (Intraday) Posted On: May 19 2011 Last Price: 82.04
[Higher?]
Key Levels: 80.94
Repeat:
New highs at 81.96 have been registered. On a intraday basis, the 80.94 level still will look to support the market although the rise has yet to register a new momentum extreme. If a pulback were to set in, initial support rests at 81.25
As noted, the rise from 80.16 contains numerous overlaps and is not clearly impulsive. We have favored the buck as the series of higher highs and higher lows continues., with our latest low at 80.94 now supporting price action.
Jack Martin
The recent new high keeps the uptrend intact. Based on the daily chart we've been favoring the buck and while its rise since 80.16 is not impulsive we'll favor the upside as long as the series of higher highs and lows continues. Support for any immediate pullback should be the 81.25 area.
Repeating previous commentary as there has been little change.
The low at 130.78 remains in place as does the call for higher prices, which we have seen. A move above 133.19 is expected, with contused advance in wave of the complex second wave retracement having potential to reach into the territory of the previous wave (iv) at 134.06.
Jack Martin
With a clear three-wave decline from the 133.19 high we're allowing for another move above that level in a second zigzag from the 130.28 low. We can easily consider the trend to be up while the nearby low at 130.78 holds. The 1.3130 area should be support if a pullback takes place.
Dear Subscriber, Here you'll be able to ask the analysts questions, watch the latest videos, and access essential educational resources. Look for it in the left-hand column of your subscribers page. Any feedback is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Dear Subscribers, let's look at common threads in sterling and euro to give us insight into the buck's trend. [عذراً, فقط الأعضاء يمكنهم مشاهدة الروابط ] for details (May 16, 2011). -- Jim Martens, Senior Currency Strategist. (Have feedback? Email me via the feedback box below the video.)
The video linked above shows how to use multiple markets, noting their similarities and correlations, to reach a general conclusion regarding the broader dollar trend. It's message remains valid.
Add the three-wave decline from 76.00 to 75.13 in the Dollar Index and the strong dollar outlook has legs. Casting the net a bit wider the outlook is not as clear. Recent updates have suggested it's possible to count individual markets and the contrast between these potential counts and the Dollar Index chart suggest we approach these market cautiously, sticking to those that show the clearest patterns.
EURJPY (Intraday) Posted On: May 23 2011 4:55AM ET / May 23 2011 8:55AM GMT Last Price: 114.05
[Lower, possible bounce]
Key Levels: 114.93
The move through 116.70 and 116.27 has pushed the chart lower as expected, following an overalapping corrective recovery. With the market in a third wave lower, and past the 2.618 measurement for a third wave drop, I would look at the 4.236x multiple at 113.01, as an area to shoot for.
Jack Martin
A triple zigzag corrective rally appears complete at last week's high so on the bigger picture we are expecting a decline well below 113.41. Short term it would not be a surprise to see a corrective bounce, but a clear three-wave rally would set up a selling opportunity. The 116.12-116.42 area should be stiff resistance.
GBPJPY (Intraday) Posted On: May 23 2011 5:05AM ET / May 23 2011 9:05AM GMT Last Price: 131.56
[Higher, Nearing a Top?]
Key Level: 130.78
As pointed out, the move through 131.96 has taken the idea of an additional peak, near-term, out of the equation, for now. The moves higher from the presented 130.28 low, is not counted well as a second wave, leaving pen the door that it is still corrective, but perhaps as part of a larger bearish triangle that has ended. A thrust lower would be accomplished in five waves and would breach 130.28. Favor the downside against the nearby 132.95 peak, looking for sub 130 prices.
Jack Martin
Still a tough call here as we are entertaining the possibility of a truncated second zigzag ending at Friday's high, but so far there is no compelling evidence of a trend change. We'll allow for but not bet on a move slightly above 133.19 to complete wave ii. However, a move below 131.96 would would indicate that at least the short-term trend has turned down.
AUDJPY (Intraday) Posted On: May 23 2011 5:14AM ET / May 23 2011 9:14AM GMT Last Price: 85.88
[Lower to a bottom]
Key Levels: 84.88
We are going to have to alter the wave count as new intraday lows have pushed the immediate bullish count beyond 85.74. The alternate now sees a 'd' wave peak, but the market must remain above 84.88 to keep the bullish triangle interpretation as preferred. Near-term , we can look lower. with moves beneath 84.88 likely favoring the alternate view of a third wave lower and new lows beneath 84.32 would be expected.
Without trying to micro manage the low here as wave '4' could still be in motion as an expanded flat. It would take moves beneath 1.2320 to feel a third wave was still in motion and in that case, the 2.618 multiple rests below at 1.2177. We'll wait and see if prices will edge higher toward stiff resistance in the 1.2459-1.2476 area, to set up a short-term top which would ideally give way to eventual new lows.
Jack Martin
A third wave down is likely at or very near completion. Wave 3 has reached the 1.618x wave 1 target at 1.2357 so the odds are the next noteworthy move will be a fourth wave recovery. I'd rather sell higher than pick a bottom here, though, so we'll wait and see if prices will edge higher toward stiff resistance in the 1.2459-1.2476 area.