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أعطى البرلمان الايطالي موافقته النهائية على حزمة اصلاحات اقتصادية في تصويت اجراه يوم السبت يمهد الطريق امام استقالة رئيس الوزراء سيلفيو برلسكوني وتشكيل حكومة طواريء.

وتعهد برلسكوني الذي لم يتمكن من الحصول على اغلبية في تصويت حاسم يوم الثلاثاء بالاستقالة عقب اقرار البرلمان للقانون الذي طالب به شركاء اوروبيون لاستعادة ثقة السوق في المالية العامة بايطاليا.

ومن المتوقع ان يقدم برلسكوني استقالته للرئيس الايطالي جورجيو نابوليتانو في وقت لاحق يوم السبت

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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

قالت شركة بوينج الامريكية لصناعة الطائرات يوم السبت انها حصلت على 700 التزام أولي لشراء طائرتها المعدلة 737 ماكس ارتفاعا من 600 في نهاية أكتوبر تشرين الاول.

وقال جيمس ألبو رئيس وحدة الطائرات التجارية في بوينج للصحفيين في دبي انه يأمل في تحويل تلك الالتزامات المبرمة مع تسعة عملاء الى عقود مؤكدة بنهاية العام الحالي أو أوائل 2012.

ورفض الخوض في التفاصيل عندما سئل عن امكانية الفوز بطلبيات لشراء الطائرة بوينج 777 عشية معرض دبي للطيران لكنه قال ان شركة صناعة الطائرات تأمل في الاعلان عن عدة طلبيات خلال المعرض الذي يقام من 13 الى 17 نوفمبر تشرين الثاني.

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نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

The US Dollar surged against all currencies except the Yen, boosted by a financial market flight to safety as the US S&P 500 posted its worst weekly loss in two months. Continued turmoil in Europe was the scapegoat, and the lack of confidence in European sovereign debt markets continues to spread throughout the global financial world. Continued deterioration in market confidence favors further US Dollar gains against the Euro and other key counterparts.

The early-week release of minutes from the recent US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may set the tone for the coming week’s trade, and it will be important to watch for surprises from the US central bank. The key question on traders’ minds is whether the FOMC is poised for further monetary policy easing. A recent wave of encouraging economic data has arguably lessened pressure on Fed officials to enact policy easing. Yet persistently high unemployment and the impending US election year make Fed easing entirely plausible.

Politics remain a hot topic as Europe struggles with fiscal debt, and the US Government debt may once again come into focus as a key deadline for debt negotiation looms for the US Congress. Markets were thrown into turmoil this past summer as the US Treasury faced the real possibility of defaulting through political deadlock.

Investor sentiment will once again be put to the test as the so-called Super Committee decides on sizeable deficit cuts for the world’s largest economy. The bipartisan group of US legislators must announce at least $1.2 Trillion in deficit cuts by November 23rd, else there will be automatic cuts to key government programs in 2013. The likelihood of said cuts remains low, however; Treasury bond traders would like to see a sizeable deal to bring the US Government’s debt under control. Market sentiment remains fragile amidst clear concerns over the sustainability of massive government debts in the Euro area. We could conceivably see similar concerns on US debt if deficits remain on their current trajectory and US Government debt grows at an unsustainable pace.

Investor sentiment remains fragile on the great deal of uncertainty surrounding financial markets. We have long argued that the US Dollar stands to gain on such uncertainty, and indeed we see many fundamental and technical reasons for fresh USDOLLAR highs in the week ahead. The key question remains: is the trade too crowded?

The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows that large speculators remain heavily net-long the US Dollar against the Euro and British Pound. In fact, traders are near their most net-short the Euro against the US Dollar since the EURUSD bottomed through mid-2010. Can we see the Euro plummet to fresh lows amidst such one-sided positioning? It seems possible. Yet there is considerable risk that any short-term corrections in the EURUSD and broader ‘risk’ could bring sharp short-covering rallies.

US Dollar bulls should keep stops tight and be prepared to switch directions on any dramatic swings in financial market sentiment.

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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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The euro is facing very serious threats to its health – troubles that could very well necessitate a change to how the currency is derived or traded. In reality, these troubles have been around for some time (hence our covering them for so long). What is causing conditions to seriously deteriorate now is a combination of: limits to policy officials’ ability to fight sentiment; rising fiscal and financial regulations in the Euro Zone; decay in not only Europe’s economy but also in global growth levels; and a deepening crisis of confidence and liquidity the world over. This is a deadly mix – a composition much like what was faced back in 2008. However, before markets and currencies collapse under their own weight; there are periods of stops and starts as policy officials try their hand at preventing disaster. We are currently in this turbulent lead-up; and that makes trading the euro particularly difficult.

If we were to simply fast forward a year, it is highly likely that we would be looking back on a global financial and credit crunch that has ransacked the world’s markets. Given European officials’ strategy through 2010 and 2011 (whether intended or not) has been to buy time in the hope that broader market confidence would recovery and thereby absorb the exposure they have taken to promote stability; a leveraged crisis event would essentially have forced them to capitulate. That means Greece would almost certainly have exited the Euro Zone, European banks would have required massive injections of capital and a structural change to the region’s financial structure would have been required as debt obligations would have prevented economic recoveries – leading to a vicious and ongoing cycle.

Doing the macro-math, this seems the most likely scenario over a longer period. Yet, trading that outcome isn’t so straightforward. The first complication is that there is a greater propensity for intervention – moves that temporarily prop up confidence but then ultimately fail. Another issue is the change in market dynamics such regulations, permanent changes to investor habits and a general trouble identifying what assets are safe havens. For those with patience, high risk tolerance and low leverage; a short euro would pay off over time. For the rest of us; we need to keep the general trend in mind and move onto the intermediate catalysts.

Over the past week, conditions have deteriorated to the point that the region once again finds itself on the threshold of a devastating collapse in funding and asset values for the region. Already well under water, we find agreement to take out all the stops for Greece is once again being second guessed. The EU’s sovereign stability is under pressure again as the ECB is desperately buying Italian and Spanish bonds to prevent the EU members from having to ask for a bailout (something that simply could not be supported given their respective sizes and the limitations of the EFSF and ESM). And, something that creates exponentially greater problems, the market-level liquidity well is running dry.

Given this collection of immediate issues; it is increasingly likely that we see a larger European rescue effort that doesn’t have the half-agreement complications or perhaps a coordinated action between the EU, US and other global leaders. The former will have a shorter half life as the market has built up a resilient skepticism and the costs have grown exponentially greater. The latter effort would likely last longer. In both instances, we would likely buy time for a short-term boost for the euro (depending on how broader risk trends were fairing). In the meantime, we may very well find a natural stabilizer in the absence of a large swatch of speculative liquidity with the US Thanksgiving holiday. That said, we should not be complacent and rely on supranatural intervention for market revival.

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نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

The outlook for the Japanese Yen continues to depend heavily on the currency pairing in question, with the crosses continuing to show a strong sensitivity to broad-based market sentiment trends while the benchmark USDJPY is distorted by intervention risk. In either case however, the principal consideration for the week ahead is the severity of Eurozone sovereign stress and investors’ resulting demand for the Yen as a safe haven.

As we have argued on numerous occasions, the Yen fulfills both critical characteristics of an attractive safe-haven asset. It is the world’s third-most traded currency (according to data from the BIS), making abundantly liquid and thereby a compelling place to park capital at times of crisis because retrieving it is relatively easy once the storm passes and reallocation to higher-yielding investments is desired. It is also an excellent store of value courtesy of Japan’s anemic inflation rate. In fact, headline year-on-year CPI has been sinking deeper into negative territory over the past three months.

Whether these qualities will prove desirable over the coming days depends largely on the news-flow out of the Eurozone. Political efforts to reassure the markets have clearly stalled, with the average yield on benchmark 10-year bonds from the so-called “PIIGS” countries – the Eurozone members most afflicted by sovereign risk concerns – finishing last week just a hair below record highs. Needless to say this reflects the markets’ demand for a considerable risk premium tacked onto borrowing costs, speaking of extreme reluctance to lend to the likes of Italy and Spain.

The conversation is noticeably shifting to the role of the ECB in containing the crisis, with calls for a large-scale QE program growing ever-louder in some parts of the currency bloc and across financial markets while meeting stiff resistance in Germany and seemingly at the central bank itself. Indeed, comments from newly-minted ECB President Mario Draghi on Friday bemoaning a potential loss of ECB credibility seemed to allude that he is partial to the German view of a narrow mandate focusing on inflation for the central bank.

However, harping on price stability while warning of mounting risks to growth may reflect a strategy to rationalize larger bond purchases without appearing to bail out governments, framing the argument for QE as a bulwark against deflationary pressures. If such a narrative begins to emerge, it is likely to boost confidence in the short term and weigh broadly on the Yen against the spectrum of its counterparts. Otherwise, continued refusal to help tame soaring borrowing costs is likely to push the Japanese currency higher against most of its top counterparts. In the case of USDJPY specifically, it may also signal oncoming intervention if prices probe below the 76.00 figure once again.

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نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

The British Pound had an interest week, to say the least, as it fell against the Japanese Yen and the U.S. Dollar while it gained against the rest of the majors. The 1.68 percent loss against the Greenback was relatively modest compared to the Swiss Franc’s drop; coupled with the U.K. 10-year Gilt (equivalent to the U.S. 10-year Treasury Note) hitting a record low yield, it appears that the Sterling is becoming an alternative safe haven, a notion inferred since the Swiss National Bank implemented a floor on the EUR/CHF on September 6. As such, a new pattern is unfolding for the British Pound: it won’t likely be the strongest performer any given week, but it is equally unlikely for it to be the weakest performer.

This outlook is predicated on two bases: first, there are likely to be increased capital flows from the Euro into the Sterling (leading to Sterling strength); and second, the Bank of England has indicated it will ramp up its quantitative easing program as the British economy continues to falter (leading to Sterling weakness). In the week ahead, this tug of war will be underscored.

Although the Sterling finished the week unchanged against the Euro, as Euro-zone tensions flare, additional strength appears on the horizon for the world’s oldest fiat currency. Liquidity is starting to thin out very quickly; in fact, interbank borrowing costs in the United Kingdom are at their highest cost since the 2008-2009 market crash. This is an exceptional cause for concern.

As such, given these developments, the most important event of the week would be the Bank of England minutes. On November 10, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep its monetary policy on hold, with the key interest rate at 0.50 percent and the asset purchase program unchanged at £275 billion. Still, the notes of the meeting provide an in-depth look at the musings of the central bank’s policymakers, and given recent dovish commentary, it appears the Sterling will face some headwinds leading up to and following the release.

Even though the Sterling’s bias is to the downside as global financial conditions becoming increasingly strained towards the end of the year, the Sterling still stands to gain ground against the higher yielding currencies, such as the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar. In fact, the minutes – expected to signal the continuation of loose monetary policy – could weigh on investor sentiment. Accordingly, the Bank of England minutes could arguably be the most important event on the week, especially considering the illiquid market conditions expected with U.S. markets closed on Thursday.

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نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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Gold tumbled by more than 3.6% this week posting its largest weekly decline since late September as a stronger dollar and falling expectations for further easing from the Fed weighed on demand for the precious metal. Over the past few weeks gold has failed to act as a “haven” amid growing uncertainty regarding the ongoing debt crisis in Europe. Instead the metal has continued to track equity markets with the gold / S&P correlation flipping to positive since the start of the November. Prior to that, gold had maintained an inverse relation with overall risk trends since early July when inflation concerns and dollar diluting policies from the Federal reserve saw traders flock into bullion as a hedge against the threat of inflation.

Looking ahead, gold traders will be closely eyeing the release of the FOMC minutes from the November 2nd policy meeting for insight into future policy shifts from the Federal Reserve. Throughout the course of this week comments from various central bankers have suggested that there continues to be dissention among voting members with regards to what measures, if any, the Fed should implement to combat the 9.0% unemployment rate which remains stubbornly high nearly two years after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

In a speech before the Texas Tech Alumni Association this week, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher cited, “I am looking forward to the day I can advocate tightening monetary policy.” A known hawk, Fisher went on to note that inflationary pressures do not seem to be a threat at this point with expectations for inflation to ease back towards the Fed’s informal target of around 2%. However his views conflict with remarks made by other voting members with New York Fed President William Dudley stating that there is more the central bank could do to provide more stability to financial markets such as the resumption of asset purchases as well as providing more clear guidance on the duration interest rates are expected to remain at record lows. His comments echo that of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who noted that further quantitative easing “remains on the table.”

Should the minutes show a growing rift within the Fed, gold may find strong support as traders look to shield themselves from the threat of inflation if the central bank once again turns on the printing press to provide further liquidity to markets. And although increased speculation in the precious metal may have contributed to the recent surge in volatility, ongoing fears about debt contagion in Europe is likely to see investors seek safety in bullion as yields on sovereign debt around the region continue to climb.

From a technical standpoint, gold continues to hold within the confines of an ascending channel formation dating back to the September lows with prices closing the week just above interim resistance at $1720 after breaking below $1740 on Thursday when the yellow metal plummeted more than 2.5%. A break here eyes key support at the 76.4% Fibonacci extension taken from the August 25th and September 26th troughs at $1700. This level remains paramount for the precious metal and if compromised exposes moves down to $1685 and the 61.8% extension at $1665. Notwithstanding a break below channel support, our medium-to-long term bias remains bullish with topside resistance now eyed at the 100% extension at $1750 backed by $1775 and the key psychological level at $1800. Look for gold to take cues off Tuesday’s Fed minutes where traders will gauge the possibility of further quantitative easing measures from the central bank

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نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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The Canadian dollar continued to lose ground against its U.S. counterpart, with the USD/CAD rallying to a fresh monthly high of 1.0301, but the pair looks poised for a short-term correction as the loonie finds near-term support. Indeed, the loonie regained its footing as the headline reading for inflation came in above forecast, and the stickiness in price growth may lead the Bank of Canada to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as the economic docket for the following week is expected to instill an improved outlook for the region.

The USD/CAD appears to have found psychological resistance around 1.0300 as it quickly fell back from the fresh monthly high, and the loonie may continue to recoup the losses from earlier this month as we’re expecting to a slew of positive developments next week. Private sector consumption is anticipated to increase in September, with market participants forecasting another 0.5% rise in retail sales, while wholesale spending is projected to increase 0.6% during the same period after advancing 0.2% in August. The ongoing improvement in private sector activity is likely to spark a bullish reaction in the Canadian dollar, and the development may encourage the central bank to talk down speculation for lower borrowing costs as it raises the outlook for future growth. However, as BoC Governor Mark Carney sees commercial banks scaling back on lending, we may see tightening credit conditions drag on the recovery, and the central bank may retain a dovish tone for monetary policy as it expects the economy to operate below full-capacity until the end of 2013. In turn, we may see Mr. Carney carry the wait-and-see approach into the following year, and the central bank head may preserve a neutral tone throughout the first-half of the following year as he aims to balance the risks for the region.

Should the USD/CAD hold resistance around 1.0300, the small pullback in the exchange rate may turn into a larger correction, but we should see the former resistance - the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2007 low to the 2009 high around 0.9880-0.9900 - hold up as support. As a result, the dollar-loonie looks poised to face sideways price action over the near-term, but the shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday may spur choppy price action across the major currencies as U.S. traders are scheduled to go offline in the second-half of the week.

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نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

The Australian Dollar had another weak week, falling across the board while only posting gains against the New Zealand Dollar. The Aussie’s 2.67 percent drop against the U.S. Dollar could have been worse, given its strong correlation to U.S. equity markets: the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.94 percent and the S&P 500 slid by 3.81 percent. Markets are beginning to show signs of exceptional distress but not panic yet – the falls this week was an orderly decline marked by slightly higher volume than recent averages, but no major outliers in terms of market participation. With that said, it appears the Australian Dollar may have some catching up to do to the assets which it is highly correlated to.

In terms of event risk on the docket the coming week, there is not much significant data to look forward to. The Conference Board Leading Index is due out on Tuesday, but that as the standalone headline fundamental event on the week will not alter the Aussie’s projection against the other major currencies. In fact, recent economic data out of Australia has done little to stem the commodity currency’s erosion: even the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Board minutes this week, which were less dovish than anticipated, could not prevent the Aussie’s depreciation for more than a few hours.

Looking ahead, market participants will eye broader trends to determine the fate of the Aussie. Global liquidity conditions are showing signs of distress across the board; the Euribor-OIS 3-month spread, for example, has been steadily increasing and has been this high (on the way up) since the last week of September 2008. This is a major red flag.

As a speculative investment vehicle, given its high yield, the Australian Dollar looks to suffer in the coming weeks. Aside from lingering near a level of major technical support, the fundamentals just don’t exist at present time to suggest the Aussie could climb back towards its October high, nevertheless its all-time high set in July, at 1.1082. As such, with markets steadily losing confidence in the Euro-zone’s ability to pull itself from the brink, look for the Australian Dollar to falter as global financial conditions continue to erode.

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http://forum.borsaat.com/t289498-9.html#post816209

نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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http://forum.borsaat.com/t331846-10.html#post875113

بتمنى لو في ترجمة للاخبار