تاريخ التسجيل: Dec 2011
الدولة: Egypt-Zgazig
المشاركات: 861
خبرة السوق: 6 شهور الى سنة
معدل تقييم المستوى:
13
رد: الذهب الدولار الفدرالي الانتخابات
توقعات جولدمان ساكس من فوركس فاكتوري
Our expectations are as follows:
1. No policy changes and no hints of QE3. We do not expect changes to the main policy parameters. In particular, the committee is very likely to retain its current guidance that economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014,” but it is unlikely to include any comments on possible easing options. We do expect, however, that the FOMC will discuss policy options under alternative scenarios for the economy, including options for additional easing. Chairman Bernanke may be asked this question at the press conference. We expect him to steer a middle ground, leaving open the possibility of additional monetary easing.
2. A slight strengthening of the "significant downside risk" phrase. Given the deterioration in the European sovereign debt crisis over the last month, we expect that the statement will soften or remove the phrase that “strains in global financial markets have eased.” One option would be to go back to the January formulation and simply state that "strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook."
3. Nods in the direction of softer data and lower energy prices. Although changes to the description of economic activity will likely be small, we expect the committee to acknowledge the weakening of the dataflow in recent weeks. Instead of saying that "labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated," the committee might say that "labor market conditions have improved further but the unemployment rate remains elevated." To reflect the decline in energy prices in recent weeks, the committee might say that higher energy prices “have boosted” inflation--instead of saying that energy prices "have increased lately"--but then reaffirm that this boost should be temporary.
4. A slight upgrade of the January forecasts. Despite the recent softening of the data, Fed officials are likely to upgrade their economic forecasts (which were made in January). Exhibit 1 below shows our expectation for these changes. First, we expect an unemployment rate midpoint of 8.05% for end- 2012 (down from 8.35% in January), 7.65% for 2013 and 7.05% for 2014 (both down by one tenth). Second, we anticipate an increase in the mid-point for core inflation from 1.65% to 1.75% for end-2012, and a 5 basis point (bp) upgrade to the mid-point in 2013 and 2014.
5. Small hawkish changes to participants' funds rate projections. Some members may lift their funds rate projections--which are shown in Figure 2 of the SEP--in response to their upgrade of inflation and unemployment. Our estimated Taylor rule, however, would suggest that these changes should be relatively small. The bottom of Exhibit 1 shows that we only expect the upper bound of the central tendency to increase by 25bp in 2013 (when it is sufficient for one participant to lift his or her projection) but not in 2014 (when at least three participants would need to raise their projections by 25bp or more). This change might increase the number of participants that are projecting the first rate hike for 2013 from 3 to 4. Also, given the slightly lower profile for the unemployment rate, we think that it is possible that a participant who currently expects the first hike in 2016 might move into the 2015 camp.
Beyond this week, we continue to forecast additional monetary easing at the June FOMC meeting. This prediction does not rest on an expectation of a "dovish signal" this week, but on our expectation that the economic data will continue to disappoint over the next couple of months given higher gasoline prices in the first quarter, the fading short-term inventory cycle boost, and a "payback" for the warm winter. Our confidence in the forecast of additional easing is not particularly high; it is certainly possible that the FOMC will decide yet again to let an asset purchase program lapse without having put a successor program in place. However, this week's FOMC meeting is unlikely to provide a clear signal one way or the other
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