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Fed action expected, but fiscal cliff clouds view
Federal Reserve expected to unveil more stimulus for the economy
LOS ANGELES — The Federal Reserve is expected to unveil more stimulus for the economy next week, but the contentious talks in Washington over tax hikes and spending cuts will remain the primary focus for U.S. equity investors.
The fiscal-cliff “headlines will continue to be the ones that will roil the market or make it happy, either way,” said Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management, in a telephone interview.
Week ahead: Awaiting the Fed
The Federal Reserve will make a monetary-policy announcement next week. Plus, retail sales figures and consumer price data are released.
Twists and turns
The Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday, with a monetary-policy announcement and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference due on Wednesday.
The Fed is expected to unveil more stimulus for the economy as its Operation Twist program expires. Twist, which was started in September of last year, was aimed at lowering mortgage and corporate bond rates through buying long-term debt and selling short-term holdings.
“With the Fed running out of short-term securities to sell,” the market is expecting “that there will be some new version of monetary stimulus and monetary easing,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer of wealth management at Northern Trust. “More asset purchases clearly are what the market has been looking for and continued injections of liquidity are what are providing, I think, a nice tailwind generally to risky assets.”
The Fed is expected to say it will add $40 billion to $45 billion per month in purchases of long-term Treasuries to its third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, when Twist ends, according to Raymond James. The Fed is also expected to hold interest rates at the record low range of 0% to 0.25%.
The Fed meeting notwithstanding, Wall Street remains foremost on fiscal-policy watch as Democrats and Republicans try to hammer out a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, or the $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set to go into effect on Jan. 1. The two sides on Friday were no closer to announcing a resolution, with House Speaker John Boehner saying little progress has been made in the negotiations.
“There’s inertia that’s set in right now, with investors and corporations [...] waiting for some signal from Washington in terms of what the future may hold so that they can plan appropriately,” said Nixon.
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