تاريخ التسجيل: Jul 2011
الدولة: بلاد العُرب اوطاني
المشاركات: 10,702
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رد: الورشة الذهبية
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ما يحدث في السوق حاليا عبارة عن نزهة في الحديقة مقارنة بالأسوأ الذي سيأتي
Still confused what that fateful FOMC day just three weeks away from today may bring, in the aftermath of a Jackson Hole symposium which was mostly focused on the adverse side effects of Quantiative Easing and the proper sequencing of unwinding the Fed's nearly $4 trillion balance sheet? Here is the explanation straight from the firm whose chief economist has dinners with none other than the Fed shadow Chairman, Bull Dudley, on a frequent basis. To wit: "First, we expect Fed officials to adjust the “mix of instruments” somewhat away from QE towards forward guidance at the September meeting, which appears to be an appropriate strategy in light of these results. Second, we expect that the FOMC will focus most if not all of the tapering on Treasury purchases rather than (current coupon) MBS purchases, consistent with the evidence that the latter are more effective in lowering mortgage rates and easing financial conditions."
So: $10-15 billion reduction in TSY monetization announced in September, enacted in October, and a seismic shift in FOMC communication away from actual intervention to promises of such, aka forward guidance. Judging by the recent track record of "forward guidance" so far, the global market volatility exhibited so far may well be just a walk in the park compared to what is coming.