تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

11#

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:54 PM

USDJPY

The JPY continues to hold the top pattern at the critical 105.70 level. The top does now appear to be firming up nicely and the downside should again be extended down to the 102.90 level. It is more likely that the market will target the key 101.76 and 101.13 major supports that the bulls must hold onto if they are to secure their ground. Whilst this is possible it is looking doubtful. We would suggest that so long as the top side resistance is held at the 105.70 level then the downside looks good for another pressuring of the 101.13 level. In the longer term we remain convinced that the market still has the unstable low at 95.65 to target and this level we believe will be again taken in the future. Currently for short term traders it is better to sell into strength that will push the 104.68 level. This is the best selling point for bears in the current patterning as the stop level is clearly placed at the 105.03 level. Thus we would suggest that selling into strength offers the best trading opportunity in the current patterning. Bears must look to remove the 101.13 supports through to regain dominance of the market. This level marks the critical break point for the market and as such we would expect that it will fail going forward. The first break is always the rejected and as such suggests that the current moves are primarily a trader’s remorse rally driven off a trend reversal signal for the markets. Therefore we expect that the Yen will eventually return to the longer term trend which is strongly down. Our long term target of 80 is achievable and we would expect that this is for later in the year but it is a move we fully expect. We remain committed bears and would only change this stance if the 105.70 level fell as this opens the 108.15 level to be traded

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

12#

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:55 PM

GBPUSD

Sterling continues to gain strength when the US Dollar faces renewed pressure from currencies like the Euro. Yet again though this strength is seeing no follow through and the market continues to fade strength. We have seen this position since the February low at 1.9339. However the market since making a high at 2.04 has managed to slip back to create descending lows that are strengthening the bears for a more serious downside removal of the 1.9339 level and a push in the future to the key breaks out point at 1.8996. As such we would be using strength to sell into this pairing up to the 1.9623 level with stops at the 1.9659 level as a removal of this level would open the topside to 1.9759. We feel that the market still has a strongly negative bias and of all the pairings this is the weakest against the US Dollar. The divergence crossing is suggesting a strong bear move going forward and as such long side trading should be managed with close stop prices.
We still feel that the bears are in control even through the corrective moves are sharp this is merely demonstrating that the market is nett positioned to the neutral side of the market. This will help the longer term bear scenario going forward. The house view remains long term bearish and expecting a strong bear move going forward

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

13#

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:57 PM

EURUSD

The Euro continues to track the main Gann supports and continues the consolidation with a strong upward bias. The market correctly based at the 1.5315 level with a few downside pushes the divergence issues are fast being unwound and are preparing this market to return to trend. This we expect to occur around the middle of August. The Bears are not in control of this market though they are trading as if they are. This is a consolidation market that produces a death of a 1000 cuts for the bears. The psychology has been turned within the market with the participants still focusing on the bear arguments rather than the central policy tenants. This is ultimately the reason that the market will again attempt the highs. Even though we believe this to be the case we would expect that the market will struggle with the highs when they are again tackled. The fact remains that the market is still in a very strong bull trend and shows little to no signal of any turn. The market is currently trading against the major resistance at 1.5661 which should be able to cap the current rally but if it is taken to a close then we would expect a fast acceleration to the 1.6015 highs. We would accept that short selling has potential at current levels but a stop at 1.5698 is a must as this would trigger the stronger bull move. On the downside we would expect that this will now be contained at the 1.5515 level with a stop just below as a removal here would open the 1.5315 level again to be tested. We believe that we are currently in the first of the consolidation moves before the highs can be removed. This would open the market to another corrective downside move from the 1.6015 level before the highs will be removed but this last part of the consolidation phase should be a half time frame count that ends with an accelerated bull run that should hit our long term target at 1.6868 where the market will have to make a serious decision of whether the 2.00 handle will be traded. Long term we remain bullish and see that the next bull part of the consolidation is close to being started. This should target 1.60 and then a sharp downside correction. Bears must beware of this patterning as it is a major threat to them. Divergence is nearly closed to a bull start point.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

14#

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:57 PM

USDCHF

The CHF is tracking the main Gann resistance line after posting a bull failure signal that correctly negated the bull move. This is now suggesting that the bears can again step into the market. The bears can get excited if the 1.0387 level is removed as this will trigger a return to trend that should see a sharp bear move to the 1.0160 level before correction to the topside again. The Divergence issues are fast unwinding and the push to 1.0160 is likely in this scenario.
The market still has to deal with the unstable low from the 17th March and this we expect to be played through during the course of the summer. The market made a correct move to the topside to remove the oversold condition of the market but this we now believe is complete
The market through will need to post further consolidation in the 1.0160 to 0.9870 consolidation range before the lows can be tackled and ultimately removed. We remain bearish to the longer term for this market. He rolling top makes the market very vulnerable to a sharp bear move.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

15#

20 - 05 - 2008, 01:59 PM

USDCAD

The market is finishing a trend termination triangle pattern that places the bears into stronger ground. Since the market hit the low at 0.9057 it has been playing a correct topside consolidation to the longer term bear market which we expect will come back into play later in the year. At the current moment we expect the market to test the 0.9785 supports which should be able to hold the first attempt but this could be a case that it fails and the bear trend returns with a vengeance. The bulls are struggling with this market as they have witnessed full convergence and it has placed a topside barrier to the market. We remain longer term bearish of this market. The market is now trading against the Gann balance line which is at 0.9889 which if this is removed would trigger a move to the first of the run lines which target the 0.9145 going forward. If this market returns to the bear trend as we expect it will be a very sharp downside acceleration. We also expect that this will be a continuation bear market when it is triggered. The bulls are fighting a difficult battle at current levels and the bears are looking increasingly more in control of this market at current levels. Bears should await the removal of the balance line to get aggressive with this market.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

16#

20 - 05 - 2008, 02:00 PM

AUDUSD

The AUD is now breaking out to new highs and these should see the 0.9722 level traded as the next stop point. The house view is that this market has started the next bull run and this is targeting 1.0490 as the next topside target. Bears should be out of this market and looking to cover themselves on any trip back to the 0.9480 level. The theme that is running through this market is that the commodity bull is far from dead and it could become very accelerated going forward. The other theme appears to be building is that the US Dollar is preparing itself for a major downside move. The US Dollar lows look very much like they will be removed during the course of the summer Dollar bulls should be very worried by the patterning build that is taking place. We remain in strong bulls with the 09722 level as an interim stop point that may fail to hold. Hence we suggest that bear trading should be stopped where possible.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

17#

20 - 05 - 2008, 02:10 PM

GBPJPY
The market remains consolidating the 200.75 to 206.10 range and as such these levels should be used as entry and exit points. The trend though in the long term remains negative and the unstable low of 17th March is a real threat to this paring. The market is still dealing with a divergence closure which is becoming far more healthy for the bears. The timing for the next bear run is not yet in picture but it is starting to pattern well that the bears are gaining control
here and we would be looking at selling into strength rather than buying weakness as the best defensive trade pattern. We would expect that the 204.86 level should be able to contain the topside and would be targeting selling at or around these levels. Long term we remain very strongly bearish.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

18#

20 - 05 - 2008, 02:14 PM

EURJPY

This is one of the few carry trades that is still holding its ground. The negative though is that the market is finding it difficult to extend any of the highs and is creating a very large termination signal to trend This can only be negated with a removal of the 167 level. As such we remain looking for selling opportunities around the current levels to the 164.80 level. These should be backed with stops at the 165.15 level. Structurally this market is looking doubtful in the longer term. The unstable lows built over the course of the last year looks very compelling for the bears. This is however a difficult market to short and as such it should be treated with respect. Certainly those wishing to play a bear tack in the carry would be better advised to seek the opportunity in the GBPJPY pairing rather than the EURJPY. Longer term we regard this market as threatening the bear tack. It has laced two even cycle lows and highs and a high cycle low to high. We are currently building for the final balanced high to low cycle which is now in an acceleration position. It is this position that makes this a dangerous play as it is suggesting that whichever way this market markets it will be a very accelerated move. Therefore we would await the correct entry signal rather than a pre-emptive action. This would be better played with options with distance to strike on both ends.

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

19#

22 - 05 - 2008, 08:01 AM

gold

Presentation CNBC Europe Closing Bell at 17.40 CET GOLD Gold has

made a technical bottom at the correct retracement at $848 and the market has posted a double cross support. This should now help the market continue the current corrective rally back to the $957.07 and then have a downside corrective move back to the $899.23 before finally returning to the long term bull trend. We are looking at this market to trade higher in the longer term to the $1,150. This should be the next interim high before the market moves to a $1,238. Our expectation is that the market is looking at continue the long term bull during July and August with a stronger and more powerful rally to continue into 2009. There is a general feeling that the commodity bull is struggling in the metals area. This is more reflective of the stronger US Dollar rather than a weakness in the metals market. The reality is also the perception that the general credit market disaster is fast resolving, whether this is true or not is in some doubt from our perspective. We believe that given the meeting and perception of the BIS central banking meeting recently a further weakening in the housing markets of 10% or more would create another round of substantial credit market related losses that could become serious dangerous to the markets in general. Given our perception on the currency markets and on the US Dollar we would expect that the metals could come back to favour a lot sooner than many expect. The only real issue was the divergence closure that took place in February to the largest since the $730 peak was hit in 2005 in percentage terms. This is what has limited the topside potential for the market rather than a change of long term sentiment. We believe that the market should now be able to hold the current levels and presents a strong bullish tone for the future. Even an aggressive sell back to the $848 would not limit the markets potential from here. we would be looking for a long term structural bull position to be created on any weakness back to the $890’s and adding to these if the market fell back to the $848 level.

الصور المرفقة

5555.jpg‏ (97.9 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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MAHMOUD_IM

عضو نشيط جدا

تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008

الدولة: الامارات-دبي

المشاركات: 760

خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 17

رد: تعليقات اساسية من مواقع اجنبية

20#

22 - 05 - 2008, 08:03 AM

oil

Oil The Oil market has had an explosive move that is technically correct
.driven off the 14th April 2008 acceleration signal. This created the current bull move which is nearing an interim high. The potential to see $147 as we predicted on the show on the 28th December last year is still available but looking very doubtful at the current levels. We would be looking at starting to place structural shorts into the market from here with the view that the market will correct to a minimum of 120 by 14th August this year. The correction though could come very quickly and could be very deep extending toward the $110 level. Whatever the depth of downside correction we would be looking for the Oil market to trade at or around the $120 by the 14th August. The current divergence is the largest since Katrina and it has been off divergence moves such as this that the market has always placed sharp corrections. We remain of the view that the market will offer a strong correction whilst tracking the current topside resistance line. Shorts though are the safe side bet in this market. The market in general has seen some strong stop price action and is now threatening the bull’s position. Our view is that the confirmation position will be made on the 14th August and any close above the $120 level would signal a further and more accelerated rally in oil into the end of the year. This could place the $175 as possible. A close below the $120 level on this date would terminate the bull and consign the market into a ranging consolidation between the $100 to $120 levels.

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الموضوع	كاتب الموضوع	المنتدى	مشاركات	آخر مشاركة
تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"	MAHMOUD_IM	منتدى تداول العملات العام	45	22 - 04 - 2009 12:49 AM

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