دوتش بانك يخفض توقعاته للذهب والنفط عام 2014 و 2015
Deutsche Bank slashed its 2014 and 2015 price forecasts for crude oil, saying
it is now the most richly
priced commodity in the world with several
downside risks including an increase
in non-OPEC
capacity and higher
OPEC spare capacity.
The bank cut its WTI price forecast for 2014 by 10.1 per cent to $88.75 per
barrel, and for 2015 by 10.5 per cent to $85.00 per barrel.
The bank
trimmed its average 2014 Brent price forecast by 8.2 per cent to $97.50 per
barrel, and 2015 by 4.5 per cent to $100.00 per barrel.
The bank cited
the normalisation in supply disruptions in Libya and possibly Iran as adverse
for oil prices.
It also downgraded its 2014 gold price forecast by 14.7 per cent to $1,141.0 per ounce, and for 2015 by 17.0 per cent to $1,100 per ounce.
"
We expect gold prices will continue to adjust lower in response to Fed tapering, a stronger US dollar, rising US real interest rates and further declines in US equity risk premium," it said.
"However, an improvement in global car sales should support industrial demand
for PGMs (Platinum group metals)."
On industrial metals, the bank said while new supply will weigh on prices, a
positive Chinese GDP growth forecast, recovery in Europe, and an above average
risk of supply disruptions would be supportive factors.
The bank
lowered its nickel
price forecast for 2014 by 11.1 per cent to $15,000 per tonne, and for 2015
by 3.5 per cent to $15,250.
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