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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2010
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كيدا is on a distinguished road
11 - 07 - 2010, 07:05 PM
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افتراضي Action forex
Action forex


Dollar and yen were broadly lower last week as stocks rebounded strongly on hope for solid earning reports. S&P 500 posted the biggest weekly gain in a year and rose 5.4% over the week. DOW also jumped 5.2% to close above 10,000 again at 10198. Dollar index dropped to as low as 83.62 before closing at 83.94. Commodity currencies were the biggest winners with Aussie and Loonie additionally boosted by strong employment data. There are a few important points to note. Firstly, volume in last week's stock rally was much less than impressive. Fewer than 6.7 billion shares were traded on US exchanges on Friday, lowest volume in 2010, suggesting that investors were indeed cautious ahead of the earning announcements this week. Secondly, both DOW and S&P 500 are trading well below 55 days EMA, suggesting the current rebound could still turn out to be a correction. Thirdly, rebound in treasury yield was unimpressive too with 10 year yield kept well below recent support turned resistance of 3.1%. We'd skeptical about the sustainability of the risk rally.

Another important point to note is that dollar is now pressing key support level. Dollar index just touched medium term trend line support last week. EUR/USD was also just inch away from medium term falling trend line. GBP/USD also clearly lost momentum ahead of the medium term falling channel. A near term recovery should at least be seen in the greenback sooner or later. Indeed, we're expecting dollar to draw strong support from the trend lines to resume medium term up trend.

Action forex

Besides, development in Sterling also worth noting. GBP/AUD was indeed the biggest loser last week, lost -5.19%, even worse than risk cross AUD/JPY's 5.06% move. GBP/NZD dropped -4.14% while GBP/CAD also lost -3.66%. More importantly, EUR/GBP breached key near term resistance of 0.8381 which is taken as the first signal of trend reversal. GBP/USD also weakened ahead of key channel resistance. We might see the pound continue to reverse fortune and turn even weaker going ahead.

The ECB announced to keep the main refinancing rate at 1% in July. At the accompanying statement, President Trichet reiterated that the current key ECB interest rates as 'appropriate' while the risks to the economic outlook are 'broadly balanced', in an environment of high uncertainty. Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) announced further details about bank stress tests. The final results will be published on July 23 and banks tested include 27 Spanish banking groups, 14 German banks and 6 Greek banks among the 91 European institutions. When asked about his comments, Trichet said the ECB was very happy that it [the test] would be done at the level of individual banks. Meanwhile, the President did not rule out the possibility that the stabilization fund announced in May might be used to recapitalize banks.
As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.5% in July. In the accompany statement, Governor Glenn Stevens said 'caution in financial markets has been evident in the past couple of months'. However, he remained confident that Australia's growth will be about trend. Concerning inflation, policymakers forecast the rate of CPI increase is likely to be a little above 3% in the near term, due to the effects of 'increases in tobacco taxes announced earlier in the year and significant increases in prices for utilities'.

Action forex



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