MNI FX TECHNICALS

أحـمـد عـزام

مشرف سابق

تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2009

المشاركات: 57,177

الدولة: charts

معدل تقييم المستوى: 73

02 - 08 - 2010, 12:14 AM

MNI FX TECHNICALS

MNI FX TECHNICALS: 2 August 2010

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EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Inverse Head-&-Shoulders Target Remains At $1.3117
RES 4: $1.3310 High 3 May
RES 3: $1.3249/65 Res line from 21 June 76.4% of $1.3692-1.1881
RES 2: $1.3213 High 4 May
RES 1: $1.3126/55 38.2% of $1.5144 to $1.1881 Daily Bollinger band top
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3048
SUP 1: $1.2979 Low 29 July
SUP 2: $1.2957 Support line from 1 July
SUP 3: $1.2847 100-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.2815 21-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Euro continues to defy gravity and given the daily Bollinger
band widening higher and daily stochastic in buy-mode -- the risk
remains on final stab at achieving its inverse head-&-shoulders pattern
target at $1.3117 which is just below $1.3126/55 Fibonacci -- the
38.2% of the decline from Nov 2009 to June 2010 and Bollinger band top.
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CABLE TECH: 2-Month Resistance Line Eyed At $1.5788
RES 4: $1.5969 50.0% of $1.7041 to $1.4234
RES 3: $1.5833/50 Low 30 Dec Low 1 Feb
RES 2: $1.5788 Resistance line from from June 28
RES 1: $1.5708/20 Low 13 Oct High 30 July
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5686
SUP 1: $1.5543 200-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5471 High 15 July
SUP 3: $1.5307/1.5311 21-day moving average Support line from 8 June
SUP 4: S1.5127 Low 21 June
COMMENTARY: Upside remains the least course of resistance with
decisive break above Oct 2009 low at $1.5708 is seen extending gains to
2-month resistance line at $1.5788. On medium-term charts risk is seen
to $1.5969 -- the 50.0% of Aug 2009 high to May 2010 low. Support is at
the 200-day moving average at $1.5543.
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DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 2.00% Moving Average Support At Y85.37
RES 4: Y89.14 High 12 July
RES 3: Y88.50 High 15 July
RES 2: Y88.00/05/09/13 1% volatility band Low 13 July Low 14 July
RES 1: Y87.58 5-day moving average
CURRENT LEVEL: Y86.47
SUP 1: Y85.89/95 Low 30 Nov 2009 Low 30 July
SUP 2: Y85.37 2% Volatility Band
SUP 3: Y85.05 Support line from April 1995
SUP 4: Y84.83 Low 27 Nov
COMMENTARY: Hitting fresh 9-month lows with downside risks seen to
Y85.37 which is the value of the 2% Volatility Band and potentially
long-term support line at Y85.05. The daily studies are mixed with
stocastic in buy-mode and momentum pointing higher but still not in
positive territory but 14-day RSI turning sharply lower.
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EURO-YEN TECHS: Outlook Constructive Above 1-Mth Support Line Y111.22
RES 4: Y116.95 100-day moving average
RES 3: Y115.21/67 38.2% of decline from 5 April Res line frm 8 July
RES 2: Y114.71/74 23.6% retracement of decline from 26 Oct High 28 July
RES 1: Y113.34 5-day moving average
CURRENT PRICE: Y112.85
SUP 1: Y111.68 1.00% envelope level
SUP 2: Y111.22/36 Support line from 1 July Ichimoku cloud base
SUP 3: Y110.55 2.00% envelope level
SUP 4: Y110.05 Low 22 July Daily Bollinger band base
COMMENTARY: Cross closed below the neckline of inverse head-&-shoulders
pattern but outlook remains constructive whilst above 1-month support
line at Y111.22. Whilst above here risk is seen on upside with measured
move of the inverse H-&-S at Y119.60 area. Initial resistance is at the
5-day moving average at Y113.34.
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EURO-STG TECHS: Fibonacci Support At stg0.8300 Seen At Risk
RES 4: stg0.8471 Resistance line from 15 Mar Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: stg0.8453 High 23 July
RES 2: stg0.8415 High 27 July
RES 1: stg0.855 Resistance line from July 20
CURRENT LEVEL: Stg0.8376
SUP 1: stg0.8300 50.0% of stg0.8069 to stg0.8532
SUP 2: stg0.8273 Base of the Bollinger band
SUP 3: stg0.8246 61.8 of of stg0.8069 to stg0.8532
SUP 4: stg0.8069 Low 29 June 7 Nov 2008
COMMENTARY: Support at Fibonacci stg0.8300 -- 50% of stg0.8069 to
stg0.8532 move is seen vulnerable given the continued bearish divergence
signals on daily stochastic and 10-day momentum study. Risk is seen to
the daily Bollinger band base at stg0.8273 and break below here favours
move to stg0.8246 which is the 61.8% of the above retracement.