EURUSD (Intraday) Posted On: May 23 2011 5:39AM ET / May 23 2011 9:39AM GMT Last Price: 1.3996
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[Lower]
Key Level: 1.4346?
Weakness from beneath 1.4158 and the prevailing trendline has pushed the market to new intraday lows. The market would have to clear 1.4052 to feel a larger correction was at hand and we can look lower as it holds.
The diagonal formed from the 1.4048 previous low now can be confirmed as an ending diagonal and likely completing part of a larger flat correction. If the decline from the early May 1.4944 peak represents a continuing fourth wave, a correction, the euro should bottom above the wave (1) peak at 1.3863. It would take an overlap of 1.3863 to consider bearish alternatives. Given the general outlook, additional weakness would be expected from beneath 1.4158, with moves higher perhaps starting a corrective three-wave rise.
Jack Martin
Prices continue to make fresh new lows so we'll stick with the bearish view. Ideally 1.4158 will contain any recovery and we'll favor the downside while it holds. Prices may find some support at the prior low at 1.4048.
Robert Kelley
Friday:
The impulsive nature highlights the overlapping nature of the advance from just above 1.4000 and the possibility it is part of a larger corrective pattern. Top candidates include a flat or triangle.
A corrective recovery would offer an opportunity to short against the 1.4346 high. So far, the recovery from 1.4211 looks corrective. Resistance rests in the 1.4263 to 1.4294 area.
EURCAD (Intraday) Posted On: May 23 2011 9:40AM ET / May 23 2011 1:40PM GMT Last Price: 1.3708
[Lower]
Key Level: 1.4358
The preference is for price to meet resistance at 1.3753 before a new low toward big support just above 1.3600.
Matthew Gress
The market has reached 1.3680 as expected. A bounce here would look for resistance in the 1.3755 area, and while the drop equalled 1.618x the previous leg down, we still cannot rule out the possibility that it is a three wave correction, as an 'x' wave. New lows beneath 1.3680 that create five waves down would boost the immediate bearish count.
The move through 1.3755 favors an decline into the 1.618x multiple for a third wave measurement at 1.3680, with eventual moves beneath 1.3632 expected within the bearish count.
Jack Martin
An important secondary peak is in place at 1.3885 and a third wave down is unfolding from there. So far it's not very impulsive but we'll favor an eventual decline below 1.3632 while resistance levels at 1.3785 and 1.3814 hold.
EURGBP (Intraday) Posted On: May 23 2011 9:33AM ET / May 23 2011 1:33PM GMT Last Price: .8688
[Lower, possible small bounce]
Key Levels: .8773
EURGBP continues to consolidate in a second wave just above stubborn support at .8760. We eventually think this support will succumb to the force of a third of third lower.
Matthew Gress
With potentially five waves down a correction is due.First resistance near the .8720/36 area in fourth wave of one lesser degree territory would make a reasonabe expectation.
With no interest in trying to call a short-term bottom, the peak spotted following the thrust from the the triangle has now made new lows, beneath .8673. If a fourth wave set in from near current levels, first resistance near the .382 retracement level resides in the .8736/43 area and we will look at a clear three-wave recovery into that area as a potential opportunity to situate for a fifth wave lower.
Jack Martin
The larger trend is clearly down with prices declining in the early stages of wave (iii). The best short-term count is that prices will soon bounce in a fourth wave and then fall to new lows to complete five waves down for wave 1 (circled). Resistance for any bounce from here is .8742, the .382 retracement of the prior third wave.
Continue to look for a sideways to higher correction in wave '4' in EURCHF to meet resistance around 1.2450 to lead to a new low in wave '5.'
Matthew Gress
The idea of an expanded flat correction here remains the preferred view. We would expect moves above 1.2417 extending to 1.2468 and we will look for the end of the recovery in that zone.
Without trying to micro manage the low here as wave '4' could still be in motion as an expanded flat. It would take moves beneath 1.2320 to feel a third wave was still in motion and in that case, the 2.618 multiple rests below at 1.2177. We'll wait and see if prices will edge higher toward stiff resistance in the 1.2459-1.2476 area, to set up a short-term top which would ideally give way to eventual new lows.
Jack Martin
A third wave down is likely at or very near completion. Wave 3 has reached the 1.618x wave 1 target at 1.2357 so the odds are the next noteworthy move will be a fourth wave recovery. I'd rather sell higher than pick a bottom here, though, so we'll wait and see if prices will edge higher toward stiff resistance in the 1.2459-1.2476 area.
USDCAD (Intraday) Posted On: May 23 2011 9:49AM ET / May 23 2011 1:49PM GMT Last Price: .9781
[Higher]
Key Level: 0.9694
The push above 0.9795, though minor so far, makes the rally from 0.9445 more than three waves and more than a correction. We're showing a third of third wave, a power pattern that would lead to an upward acceleration.
The next target area lies in the 0.9924-46, where wave ((iii)) would be 1.618x wave () and wave (iii) would equal wave . A third of third wave would likely extend toward the 1.0100 area.
Barring a decline below 0.9684 stick with the bullish outlook, treating setbacks as correction and potential opportunities to align with the larger trend.
USDCHF (Intraday) Posted On: May 23 2011 9:38AM ET / May 23 2011 1:38PM GMT Last Price: .8845
[Higher]
Key Levels: 0.8748 and 0.8708
Given the general outlook for the dollar, generally, and the overlapping setback from 0.8950 I'm switching to a version of the former alternate count. This is a less immediately bullish view, putting the buck in a third wave advance instead of a third of third wave, but both point to higher levels.
A rally through resistance to 0.8886 should continue above 0.8950 toward 0.9144, where the rally from 0.8748 would equal the prior advance from 0.8554. This is a conservative target. A third wave would likely extend toward the 1.618x objective at 0.9389.
GBPUSD (Intraday) Posted On: May 23 2011 9:27AM ET / May 23 2011 1:27PM GMT Last Price: 1.6116
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[Lower]
Key Levels: 1.6308
Sterling has been the leading pair, showing clearly corrective recoveries and impulsive decline. Recent videos have shown how we've used the patterns from the chart of cable to forecast other dollar pairs.
Specific to cable, sterling is headed lower in a third wave, perhaps a powerful third of third wave. The next objective rests at 1.5937, where the decline underway from 1.6308 would equal the prior impulsive decline from 1.6518. That's a conservative expectation. A third wave would extend toward 1.5708, the 1.618x relationship.