Has the USD Recovery Derailed

سوبر مان

عضو فـعّـال

تاريخ التسجيل: May 2010

المشاركات: 1,949

خبرة السوق : 1 الى 3 سنوات

الدولة: المملكه الاردنيه الهاشميه

معدل تقييم المستوى: 15

29 - 05 - 2011, 02:17 PM

Has the USD Recovery Derailed

السلام عليكم ورحمه الله وبركاته:

هذه التحليلات منقوله من موقع اف اكس تايمز ,,, اتمنى ان تستفيدوا منها

The USD-recovery has flattened out a bit this last couple of weeks after a sharp rally since the start of May. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF show a weak USD recovery, but mostly a struggle to keep the May-gains. Let’s take a look at these pairs to see whether the recovery has derailed, or whether the greenback still has a chance to extend it.

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دعاء قضاء الدين وجلب الرزق

" اللهم مالك الملك تؤتى الملك من تشاء وتنزع الملك ممن تشاء وتعز من تشاء وتذل من تشاء بيدك الخير إنك على كل شىء قدير "
تولج الليل في النهار وتولج النهار في الليل وتخرج الحي من الميت وتخرج الميت من الحي وترزق من تشاء بغير حساب

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سوبر مان

عضو فـعّـال

تاريخ التسجيل: May 2010

الدولة: المملكه الاردنيه الهاشميه

المشاركات: 1,949

خبرة السوق: 1 الى 3 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 15

رد: Has the USD Recovery Derailed

29 - 05 - 2011, 02:19 PM

The EUR/USD bounced off the 1.40 pivot, albeit cracking it first. It is now near 38.2% retracement near the previous high at 1.4345. A break above that targets the next pivot at 1.4450.
- Candlestick action for today’s rally is strong, but the 4H RSI has yet to cross 70. If it does, then the EUR/USD has a case for a bullish resumption.
- The 61.8% retracement level is at 1.4575. The USD recovery would be jagged, but still if the EUR/USD is held below 61.8% retracement, there is still a chance for further correction.
- A break above 1.46 area however should then target the 1.4940 high and should reflected a derailed USD-recovery.

التوقيع

سوبر مان

عضو فـعّـال

تاريخ التسجيل: May 2010

الدولة: المملكه الاردنيه الهاشميه

المشاركات: 1,949

خبرة السوق: 1 الى 3 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 15

رد: Has the USD Recovery Derailed

29 - 05 - 2011, 02:20 PM

The USD-recovery against the Sterling is about to be challenged. The GBP/USD is near 61.8% retracement of its May decline.
- A break above this retracement target, and the 1.6515 pivot suggests bullish intention towards our May high at 1.6750.
- However, a return back the 1.63 pivot brings back the bearish continuation scenario in the GBP/USD.
- Notice however that the 4H RSI is above 70, after failing to dip below 30, a sign of bullish bias.

التوقيع

سوبر مان

عضو فـعّـال

تاريخ التسجيل: May 2010

الدولة: المملكه الاردنيه الهاشميه

المشاركات: 1,949

خبرة السوق: 1 الى 3 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 15

رد: Has the USD Recovery Derailed

29 - 05 - 2011, 02:22 PM

The USD/JPY pair retraced 50% of May’s rally in just a couple of days. This shows that the May rally was corrective in nature, and the market still has the bearish bias it carried since the beginning of April (after the Mid-March dip and rally).
- The RSI in the 4H chart still does not show bearish momentum, but definitely killed the bullish momentum. In the daily chart, the inability to break above 60 shows retention of bearish momentum.
- Until the USD/JPY breaks above 85.50, it has bearish bias. Here the pressure on USD/JPY reflects a mixed or frail USD-recovery. A break back below the 79.58 low however would suggests further pressure in the greenback.

التوقيع

سوبر مان

عضو فـعّـال

تاريخ التسجيل: May 2010

الدولة: المملكه الاردنيه الهاشميه

المشاركات: 1,949

خبرة السوق: 1 الى 3 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 15

رد: Has the USD Recovery Derailed

29 - 05 - 2011, 02:24 PM

The USD/CHF could not stop the decline from making fresh lows. The daily chart shows the market retaining bearish momentum as the RSI remained below 60.
- In fact a negative reversal signal (Higher RSI high, but lower price high) targets 0.8170.
- This is more of a Swissie-strength story as it made fresh lows against the EUR and GBP as well.
- The USD is going to have a hard time recovery unless the USD/JPY bottoms and rallies above 85.50, and the USD/CHF flattens out or better yet rally above the 0.8950 pivot. The bottoming process can take a long time, as USD/JPY has been attempting to bottom out since Oct/Nov 201

التوقيع

سوبر مان

عضو فـعّـال

تاريخ التسجيل: May 2010

الدولة: المملكه الاردنيه الهاشميه

المشاركات: 1,949

خبرة السوق: 1 الى 3 سنوات

معدل تقييم المستوى: 15

رد: Has the USD Recovery Derailed

29 - 05 - 2011, 02:30 PM

The AUD/USD failed to extend the correction down to 1.04. Instead the decline flattened and the corrective structure turned out to be a declining wedge.
- Today, the market is testing and cracking the resistance. The 200SMA and the resistance pivot at 1.0710 also serve to challenge the current rally.
- Note the RSI in the 4H chart breaking above 60. It did not kiss 70 but a break above 1.0710 is likely to be confirmed by this bullish momentum breakout.
- The next pivot for this really is the 1.0885 high, then the 1.1010 all time high.
- Note also in the 1H chart, the RSI rising above 70. Now if the market is to maintain this short-term bullish momentum, the RSI reading should remain at least above 40, preferably above 50.
- A failure to break above 1.0710 and a break back below 1.0610 is a bad sign for the bullish scenario because it would invalidate a bullish wave count seen in the 1H chart. In this case, the market is likely to find a range very roughly between 1.07 and 1.05.

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