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قال يورجن ستارك عضو المجلس التنفيذي للبنك المركزي الاوروبي يوم الجمعة انه اعتراف بالفشل الا تتمكن اوروبا من حل أزمة ديونها بنفسها وأن تلجأ لمساعدات خارجية مثل مساعدات من صندوق النقد الدولي.

وقال ستارك ان هرع الدول المثقلة بالديون لطلب المساعدات من صندوق النقد الدولي يعد "اعترافا بالفشل في أوروبا - أولا لاننا لم نتمكن من تجنب الوصول الى هذا الوضع والان بعد ان وصلنا الى هذا الوضع لم نعد نحن الاوروبيون قادرون على حل مشاكلنا الداخلية بأنفسنا

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نتائج ورشة مؤشر ATR المعدل من 28-11-2011
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واصلت الاسهم الامريكية هبوطها يوم الجمعة اذ تراجعت المؤشرات الثلاثة الرئيسية أكثر من واحد بالمئة بسبب الضبابية التي تحيط بأزمة الديون في أوروبا وتقرير سوق العمل الامريكية الذي تضمن قراءات متباينة.

وتراجع مؤشر داو جونز الصناعي ‪ لاسهم كبرى الشركات الامريكية 114.28 نقطة أو 0.95 في المئة الى 11930.19 نقطة. ونزل مؤشر ستاندرد اند بورز 500 ‪ الاوسع نطاقا 13.85 نقطة أو 1.10 في المئة الى 1247.30 نقطة.

وانخفض مؤشر ناسداك المجمع ‪ الذي تغلب عليه اسهم شركات التكنولوجيا 28.31 نقطة أو 1.05 في المئة الى 2669.66 نقطة

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It wasn’t just the dollar that opened this past week backed by a strong fundamental wind. Global investors sentiment was severely shaken by the suggestion that Greece’s Prime Minister was pushing through a vote on the EU’s austerity plan, which could have essentially been read as a vote on the countries membership in the EU. A direct escalation of the market’s hot spot for crisis; the fear engendered from this particular event was more than enough to drive capital away from all things ‘risky’ and into the relatively safe confines of the US dollar and its Treasuries.

However, now we know that the Greek threat of default and/or EU withdrawal was a political move to leverage support from a split parliament. Going forward the market will be more reticent to follow similar catalysts. This will not, on the other hand, necessarily dampen volatility in the balance between high returns and safe harbor for speculative capital. Since the dollar is not particularly sensitive to its own fundamental developments (the Fed has vowed to keep benchmark rates near zero until mid-2013 and the road to a strong economic recovery will no doubt be very long); we will have to look to the quality of sentiment and its catalysts going forward.

An immediate driver to start next week may be the reaction to the Greece confidence vote. With Prime Minister Papandreou surviving, the country has essentially moved forward with approving the austerity measures the EU/IMF/ECB require in order for the EU member to receive the assistance agreed to in the October 26th Pact. There is still the possibility the new unity government may not be able to garner the necessary support to stay the course on austerity; but there are a number of weeks before such an issue would create a real problem for regional (and global) financial stability. This is another lingering issue whose resolution will be pushed back a little further.

In the meantime, the bearing on market-wide sentiment trends and thereby the greenback will still be determined by threats to financial stability. Yet, the focus now is turning to much more intrinsic and pervasive elements of the system. A serious concern in the market backdrop is the persistent slide in liquidity and surge in demand for so-called ‘risk-free’ assets – which suggests a lower tolerance for anything risky and greater attraction for safety. Taking the temperature of the funding markets (the lifeblood of finance), we note that the cost for banks to borrow funds in the US (the three-month Libor – overnight index swap spread) has risen to its highest level since July of 2009. Signaling the spread of contagion from the Euro Zone, foreign short-term loans (repos) with the Fed has surged to a record high this last week. In the meantime, the US benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is quickly closing back in on its record low (set in September) while its European equivalent in the German 10-yr Bund has just off its own record low.

With the progress of the world’s next crisis spreading out from Greece to other sovereigns (Italy seems in serious risk now), European banks (Dexia, Societe Generale, Unicredit, etc), and now showing a clear impact on US liquidity and banks (MF Global); we see the same dangerous spread that happened back in 2008. This will be a slow development in the background; but the dollar will respond to is the catalysts that bring the threat to the forefront and thereby stokes panic that drives capital to safety.

Looking for set events to stir risk next week, there is nothing on the docket that has the clout to seriously alter confidence on a global scale, so we will have to be tuned in to big headlines. In the meantime, top event risk is the University of Michgan sentiment figure

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The Euro tumbled sharply against the safe-haven US Dollar amidst a clear deterioration in domestic fiscal issues, underlined by the widest spreads between Italian and German bonds since the Euro Era and fresh troubles in Greece. The continued series of quick-fixes to the deep-seated fiscal problems across the Euro Zone were laid bare when Greek Prime Minister proposed putting the latest austerity packages to a domestic referendum. A quick about-face and short-term resolution later and things are no clearer than they were at the start of the week. Indeed, markets seem headed for fresh waves of European fiscal difficulties and clear uncertainty in the Euro Zone.

There seem to be endless reasons to remain bearish the Euro against the US Dollar and other key counterparts. The single currency tumbled on suggestions that Greece itself could derail weeks of negotiations on the most recent fiscal aid packages. The crisis seems to be averted as Prime Minister Papandreou backed away from plans to put fresh austerity restrictions to a popular vote. And yet uncertainty reigns supreme as Italian bond yields shot higher and markets remain on eggshells.

A relatively empty week of Euro Zone economic event risk suggests that volatility could slow in the days ahead, but recent price action emphasizes that sharp moves can come on any number of unexpected announcements. The Greek government narrowly passed a no-confidence vote and avoided putting itself into further crisis via fresh elections. Yet Greece is a mere distraction compared to the trouble brewing in Italy; the lack of confidence in the existing government threatens to put the very single currency zone at risk.

The spreads between Italian bond yields and the benchmark German Bunds jumped to their worst since 1996, and markets continue to doubt the Italian government’s ability repay its sizeable debts. As the EMU’s third-largest economy, Italy holds the second-largest debt that amounts to nearly 120 percent of total GDP. Therein lies the difficulty: Italy’s debt is so large that even the most ambitious European rescue package would be unlikely to contain a Greece-like crisis. Thus continued worries in Italy’s creditworthiness would almost certainly bring further EUR weakness.

As traders the next question is clear: to what extent is this priced into markets? More importantly, can we expect these dynamics to continue driving Euro weakness? The EURUSD has shown little willingness to break to fresh lows, and indeed it seems as though markets may have registered a fairly significant bearish sentiment extreme. In other words: the EUR-short bet has become quite popular and exceedingly crowded. FX Options traders are now their most bearish EURUSD in at least 7 years, while Non-commercial futures traders recently hit their most net-short since the EUR set a significant bottom near the $1.20 mark.

It may take a substantial deterioration in Euro Zone sentiment to drive the EURUSD to fresh lows, and indeed it’s difficult to see the EUR trading substantially lower in the days ahead. What could force fresh short-term lows? Again, Greece remains the red herring: Italy remains the core issue. Thus keep an eye on Italy and whether or not Prime Minister Berlusconi’s government can make a true commitment to budget discipline. Otherwise, recently-choppy trading conditions could persist. Certainly a drop in volatility expectations suggests moves might slow. $1.3700 marks key short-term while $1.3850 marks nearest resistance—watch for major breaks

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The Japanese Yen was the second worst performing major currency this past week, falling 3.06 percent against the U.S. Dollar. The Yen’s positioning among the major currencies is curious to say the least, in light of the intervention; the New Zealand Dollar performed even worse than the Yen did. Still, with another invention out of the way, one of many potential interventions given Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi’s comments, it appears that the Yen is poised for further strength in the coming weeks.

The biggest fundamental drawback to the Yen is how it fares against the U.S. Dollar. Clearly, Japanese monetary officials are paying close attention to how the Yen performs against the U.S. Dollar and not the other major currencies; while the Yen easily surpassed its pre-intervention levels against the Euro and the New Zealand Dollar this past week, it remained lower against the Greenback. It appears that it will take another sharp move higher against the world’s reserve currency for Japanese officials to intervene once more. However, a point of caution: the timing of this past week’s intervention, in light of recent global developments, is of no coincidence.

Ahead of the intervention, markets rallied sharply on news that Greece would write-down 50 percent of its debt and that more aid would head towards the indebted Southern European nation. With the USD/JPY under pressure over the past several months, the relief provided by the Euro-zone’s temporary measures provided an opportunity to intervene when market participants were least expecting it. In fact, it appears that the move was preemptive to say the least, in anticipation of another major bear move in the weeks ahead. With that said, the transition in the Greek government that is scheduled to occur over the next few days should boost investor confidence, perhaps setting stage not dissimilar to the one headed into last weekend.

On a strictly fundamental basis, there are two events on the docket that will be taken into consideration by Japanese officials when deciding whether or not to intervene on behalf of a weaker Yen once more. Trade balance data from September is due, which is expected to show a marked improvement from the prior month – a clear result of a weaker Yen following the August 4 intervention. Data going forward is unlikely to show the same improvement, as the Yen strengthened significantly between August 4 and October 31 (the most recent intervention).

The other event on the docket worth noting is the Eco Watchers survey, an index that tracks correspondents’ opinions of the current economic climate as well as their forecast going forward. The current portion of the survey, according to a Bloomberg News survey, suggests that economic conditions are worsening in Japan, albeit at a slower pace, with the index forecasted to show an uptick to 46.5 in October from 45.3 in September. This reading would remain below the July high of 52.6. While there is no forecast for the forward looking portion of the survey, the index has steadily deteriorated over the past several months. Using this as a guide, if Japanese companies believe that they’re heading towards hardship, this could be enough reason for either the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance to intervene in the markets ahead of the next major sell-off in risk-correlated asset

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The British Pound was the top performing currency against a stronger dollar this week with a decline of just 0.68% versus the greenback. Although the dollar surged against all its major counterparts this week, the sterling has remained rather resilient with all the majors declining between 2.4-3.2% against the reserve currency. This interesting phenomenon suggests that capital flows may be moving into the UK as investors seek to shield themselves from the debt crisis which continues to threaten financial stability in the euro region.

Economic data out of the UK was mostly stronger this week with nationwide house prices, 3Q GDP, and PMI construction all toping estimates. Although some temporary factors like the royal wedding may have artificially boosted GDP figures, overall metrics in the UK seem to be improving with pound continuing to hold within its recent range despite a surge in FX volatility this week. Services and manufacturing PMI were points of contention with both grossly missing consensus estimates. Manufacturing was especially weak with a print of 47.4, suggesting a contraction in the sector with last month’s print also being downwardly revised to 50.8 from 51.1. That said, it seems that pound losses continue to be cushioned as fears of further debt contagion in Europe see investors shifting capital into the sterling.

Aside from further developments out of Greece, the single largest event risk for the pound next week will be the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. Although the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%, traders will be speculating on whether the BoE will release a statement with the decision announcing further expansion of the asset purchase program. Last month the central bank decided to expand its purchases by £75 billion to £275 billion in an effort to further support the fragile economy and take a pro-active approach to concerns over possibly undershooting the 2% inflation target in the medium term. We find it unlikely that the BoE would move to expand easing measures with speculation now arising that the bank may look to halt its purchases until further clarification about the euro. However with the National Institute for Economic and Social Research reporting that the UK economy has a 50% chance of falling back into recession, MPC members led by Governor Mervin King may see scope to further expand easing measures as a means of shielding the economy from the European debt crisis.

The GBP/USD continues to hold between the 76.4% and 100% Fibonacci extensions taken from the July 12th and October 6th troughs at 1.5910 and 1.6120 respectively with price action on Friday closing just above the 100-day moving average at 1.6020. Interim support for the pound rests at the 1.60-figure, backed by 1.5950. A break below the 1.59-handle risks further losses for the sterling with subsequent floors seen at 1.5850 and the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.5790. Topside resistance holds at 1.6050 with a breach above 1.61 eyeing topside targets at 1.6120, 1.6160, and 1.6230

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Gold advance to a fresh monthly high of $1768/oz as market participants diversified away from the U.S. dollar, and the bullion may continue to retrace the sharp selloff from back in September as the Federal Reserve casts a weakened outlook for the world’s largest economy. Indeed, the Fed lowered its forecast for growth and inflation after maintaining its current policy, and we may see Chairman Ben Bernanke continue to talk up speculation for another round of quantitative easing as the slowing recovery heightens the risk of a double-dip recession.

According to a survey by Bloomberg News, 28 of the 32 participants polled see Gold pushing higher next week, and the bullish sentiment underlying the bullion may gather pace should the FOMC show an increased willingness to expand monetary policy further. Although the economic docket remains fairly light for the following week, a number of Fed officials are scheduled to speak next week, and dovish comments coming out of the central bank is likely to spur increased demands for the precious metal as market participants look for an alternative to the reserve currency. However, there could be a growing rift within the FOMC as policy makers see the economic recovery gradually picking up, and the committee may endorse a wait-and-see approach for the remainder of the year as it carries out ‘Operation Twist.’ As we expect the shift away from risk-taking behavior to carry into the following week, the flight to safety should increase the appeal of the bullion, and the rebound from $1532/oz may gather pace in the days ahead as market participants see the FOMC taking additional steps to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation.

As Gold appear to be trading within an upward trending channel, spot prices should push higher over the following week, and the bullion may continue to retrace the reversal from the record-high ($1921/oz) as the dovish policy stance held by the Fed dampens demands for the greenback. In turn, the precious metal may climb back above $1800/oz next week, but we recommend keeping a close eye on the relative strength index as it approaches overbought territory

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The Canadian Dollar had a poor week, falling 2.44 percent against the U.S. Dollar, but this was a modest decline relative to its other peers. In fact, among the majors, the Canadian Dollar was the second best performing currency on the week against the Greenback, only second to the British Pound. The Loonie remains firmly anchored to broad market sentiment, given its substantial correlation to the major U.S. stock indexes; when the S&P 500 gains, the USD/CAD drops. This is a trend that is expected to continue for an indefinite amount of time going forward.

The relative strength of the Canadian Dollar compared to its counterparts, save the U.S. Dollar, was rather surprising given the data releases for the world’s eleventh largest economy over the past week. The Canadian labor market surprisingly weakened in October with the unemployment rate climbing to 7.3 percent from 7.1 percent as 54.0K jobs were subtracted from the economy. Both of these readings were worse-than-forecasted; 15.0K jobs were expected to have been added with the unemployment rate holding at 7.1 percent. The Bank of Canada is unlikely to do much to help the situation, as Governor Mark Carney noted that the bank’s mandate is to ensure price stability first and foremost.

Looking ahead, there is not much on the docket by way of significant economic data releases. The most significant release will come on Tuesday, when housing sector data is due. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the Canadian economy is forecasted to have begun construction on 197.5K homes in October, down from the revised 207.6K figure in September. This wouldn’t be a substantial enough decline to harm the Loonie, as it would still hold above the 2011 average of 191.6K housing starts per month.

Instead of concentrating on data releases, it would be best to examine broader macroeconomic trends: in particular, Chinese data and developments out of the Euro-zone. Concerns over a “hard landing” for the Chinese economy still exist, with concerns over a potential credit bubble in China starting to come to the surface. If Chinese growth is indeed slowing, then concerns of a global recession with find new life, weighing not only on risk-appetite, but oil as well; over the past two-years, the USD/CAD has a significant -0.621 correlation with crude. Likewise, if concerns of a Euro-zone recession are exacerbated due to developments out of Greece and Italy, oil, and thus the Loonie, is likely headed lower. Considering the G-20 summit yielded nothing substantial and Euro-zone leaders remain inept at solving the current crisis, it appears that like equity markets, the Loonie is on the verge of a major collapse in the coming weeks.

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The Australian dollar pared the advance from the previous month following a shift in risk sentiment, but we may see the high-yielding currency regain its footing over the following week should the economic docket reinforce an improved outlook for the isle-nation. Although we’re expecting to see a 1.5% rise in home loans, the labor report for October highlights the biggest even risk for the Aussie as the Reserve Bank of Australia tries to deliver on its dual mandate to ensure price stability while fostering full-employment.

However, market participants may show a mixed reaction to the release as the jobless rate is projected to increase to 5.3% even as the economy is anticipated to have created 10K jobs from the previous month. Should the data reflect discourage workers leaving the labor force, the development would dampen the outlook for future growth, and the Reserve Bank of Australia may continue to scale back the rate hikes from the previous year as the region faces a slowing recovery. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants still see the RBA lowering the benchmark interest rate by another 100bp over the next 12-months, and Governor Glenn Stevens may continue to soften his hawkish tone for monetary policy as the central bank the marked appreciation in the local currency bears down on growth and inflation. As the fundamental outlook deteriorates, we are likely to see the central bank take additional steps to shield the economy, and the RBA may carry its easing cycle into the following year as the slowdown in global growth dampens the prospects for an export-led recovery.

As the AUD/USD carves out another top just below 1.0800, the pullback from 1.0752 may gather pace in the days ahead, and the event risks on tap for the following week may have a limited impact on the Aussie as the central bank casts a weakened outlook for the region. In turn, we may see the Australian dollar continue to give back the rebound from 0.9390, and the exchange rate may come up against the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2010 low to the 2011 high around 0.9930-50 to test for near-term support

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قال مشرع صيني كبير سابق يوم السبت ان الصين مستعدة لمساعدة أوروبا - أكبر سوق لصادراتها - في التعامل مع أزمة ديونها والعودة الى مسار التعافي لكن ثمة حدودا لما يمكن أن تقدمه بالفعل.

وأبلغ تشنغ سي وي الصحفيين "تأمل الصين بالتأكيد في حل أزمة الديون. اذا انتشرت الازمة فقد تفضي الى تفكك منطقة اليورو وتؤثر على النظام النقدي العالمي نظرا لان اليورو هو ثاني أكبر عملة احتياط."

وقال تشنغ الذي ما زال مستشارا مهما للحكومة "لكن لا تعلقوا امالا عريضة على الصين. لا تستطيع الصين أن تكون البطل المنقذ .. ستمد الصين يد العون في حدود طاقتها لكن على أوروبا أن تعتمد على نفسها."

ورغم أن الصين تملك احتياطيا من العملات الصعبة هو الاضخم في العالم عند 3.2 تريليون دولار لكن تشنغ قال ان حجم السيولة المتاحة الذي تستطيع استثماره في أوروبا قد يكون محدودا.

وقال انه ليس بمقدور الصين على سبيل المثال بيع حيازاتها من سندات الخزانة الامريكية البالغة نحو 1.14 تريليون دولار لان خطوة من هذا القبيل قد تدفع أسعار السندات الامريكية للانحدار.

وقال "اذا بعنا السندات الامريكية فقد يصبح الاقتصاد الامريكي في مأزق."

كان تشنغ - الذي شغل من قبل منصب نائب رئيس البرلمان - أحدث هزة في الاسواق المالية عام 2006 عندما قال ان على الصين أن تقلص حيازاتها من السندات الامريكية.

ويعتقد المحللون ان 70 بالمئة على الاقل من احتياطيات الصين من العملة الصعبة تصب في أصول مقومة بالدولار من بينها سندات خزانة والربع في أصول باليورو.

وقال تشنغ ان شراء السندات الاوروبية سيكون أحد الخيارات المتاحة لمساعدة أوروبا مضيفا أن الصين قد تعزز التجارة مع المنطقة وتنشط الاستثمار المباشر

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