تاريخ التسجيل: Jul 2011
الدولة: بلاد العُرب اوطاني
المشاركات: 10,702
معدل تقييم المستوى:
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رد: الورشة الذهبية
بيوت المال بدأت في تخفيض نظرتها المستقبلية للذهب تحت 1000$
Goldman Sachs expects Gold prices to crash below $1,000:
Goldman Sachs Group says that as the U.S. Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus and economic data improve, there’s a risk that gold bullion may extend declines to drop below $1,000 an ounce. Gold futures haven’t traded below $1,000 since October 2009. Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research said, “While we agree with the mid-cycle price somewhere around $1,200, we believe that at least near term it can overshoot to the downside, which is why we have $1,050” as a target. It clearly could trade below $1,000.” “The real key in gold is to see the evidence of the improving economic data in the U.S.,” said Currie. Weakening emerging-market currencies, especially the South African rand, will also help to reduce the cost of production in dollars, he said. The U.S. federal government needs to increase its debt limit later this year, and Goldman expects that the ceiling will be raised by the end of next month.
The rebound in gold prices is over and investors should sell as it drops toward $1,200 by the end of this year, Societe Generale said in a Sept. 10 report.
“For next year, a move to $1,000 is on the cards,” said Dominic Schnider, head of commodities research at UBS AG’s wealth-management unit in Singapore. “Once a timetable of tapering is known, then you probably will see a fresh selling wave of the exchange-traded fund side.”
Credit Suisse Group AG raised the possibility of gold trading below $1,000 in May as Ric Deverell, head of commodities research at the bank, said then that bullion was going to get crushed as inflation risks remained muted. That forecast was for bullion in five years’ time.
A Gold Bull among a world full of Bears:
Yet in the face of the recent weakness in gold, some market analysts see upside ahead. HSBC Global Research raised its 2013 gold price forecast and said physical demand is becoming a major driver for the metal. It lifted its price outlook for this year to $1,446 an ounce up $50 from its previous forecast of $1,396, but kept its 2014 forecast unchanged at $1,435. HSBC cited physical buying of the metal for the forecast hike, with investment demand fading as fears of imminent inflation diminish. “With investment demand no longer determining gold prices, we believe the price is now being driven by physical demand for jewelry, coins, and bars from China, in particular. Indeed, we would argue that physical demand trends will be key to gold prices in 2013 and 2014,” Kitco quoted the HSBC analysts as saying.
Ben Bernanke on Gold:
Gold has fallen this year because investors see less need for disaster insurance, Bernanke said in July. One reason that prices are lower is that people are less concerned about extreme outcomes, particularly negative, he said.
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