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تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"

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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
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تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
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افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
11#
27 - 03 - 2008, 07:01 PM
وهنا توقع ما سيحدث للداونجوز

Dow Jones We sent a piece to our clients in February indicating a fast drop to 12,000 for the Dow. This duly appeared. It is our view that the market is poised at a very difficult position. Certainly it explains a lot of the reason for the pricing action at current levels. In the chart we expect to see the Dow to fall to 9,937 around the end of May to the second week of June. This should be possible if the 11,750 level is removed to a close. The FOMC is also coming in and acting with all kind of measures at 11,750 and this is also an indication to us that they are also acutely aware of the current dangers at the recent lows. If these lows are removed then the weight of expectation will force the Dow into a very uncomfortable position. Looking at the Gann analysis, we would expect that the market should be able to see a fall to the 9,937 level and the pressures are mounting for this to occur. In standard analysis we are looking at a head and shoulders top with both shoulders indicated on the chart. Again this move also measures to 9,937. We believe that the pressure is very clearly in play and the market is making high volatility moves at the lows and this is normally associated with continuation downside moves. It is our expectation that the current patterning should force the FOMC’s hand before the 18th but we feel that there is a chance that they will be able to hold off so long as the 11,750 level is supported. Even if the FOMC does act with another rescue and further rate cuts we feel that the die has been cast and the downside is looking the stronger of the two paths. As such we are aware that the market is still liable for sharp corrections to the topside and do not rule out another potential run to 12,765 but this we would be using as a strong bear entry point. If the downside is taken through we would join the move as it could become very accelerated. The market is rejecting the 12,242 topside level and as long as this continues we would be happier to be a bear than a bull. The bears should leave if this level is taken. This a balance line and as such should be able to resist the topside moves. Again its projection low is aimed at the same level of 9,937 around the end of May beginning of June.

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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
MAHMOUD_IM is on a distinguished road
افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
12#
27 - 03 - 2008, 07:03 PM
الذهب
GOLD The gold market placed a sharp downside correction and this is to be expected as the market had expanded divergence to the widest since we saw the highs at 730 in 2005 when gold last saw an accelerated break. The difference between the two is that in 2005 this was not driven by the previous significant high acceleration signal being passed on to the new high. This now places the market with a serious issue. We have been close to our target of 1,058 level and the steam is coming out of the market. It has been the US Dollar weakness that has been a large driver to this issue and this now for the moment appears to be settling. Thus we expect the market now to move to a consolidation phase which should see gold starting to face strong corrections. We do not rule out that the market will again tackle the 1,000 barrier but are now of the view that the market will retrace to the $844 level and potentially beyond to $776 before the next consolidation patterning is constructed. In commodities pattern consolidation normally takes about two years to build and we see no reason why this would be different in the current market. Thus we would now be looking to sell into any strength near to $1,000 and only exit shorts if the market removed 1,032. WE STRESS THAT THIS IS NOT THE END OF THE COMMODITY BULL. He is just going through consolidation and correction within a strong bull trend that is intact and well formed. Only a breach of $776 would alter that perception.
This is a similar story in the Euro as well with the current trend extensions against divergence and as such a downside pull is in force and must not be ignored. The problem is that the market when it rallies does appear to place the highs very much at risk. This ranging the top with sharp
correction is always a dangerous time for traders. We believe that the brave will be getting geared to the short side as the downside potential is available and when it comes will be fast. We would suggest that bulls must exit if $886 is removed. Bund Future
الصور المرفقة
نوع الملف: jpg 253.jpg‏ (85.5 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)
MAHMOUD_IM غير متواجد حالياً  
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
MAHMOUD_IM is on a distinguished road
افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
13#
31 - 03 - 2008, 10:50 AM
اليوم 31-3-2008

USDJPY
All pretty dull here as the market continues to tread water after the spike low a couple of weeks ago. Though medium-term USD bears we are mindful of the buy signal on Daily TD Sequentials on the Dollar Index last week and would be running only minimal positions at current levels especially with TDMA1 not being present on the chart for the last 7 sessions. A move towards 102.50/105.00 should be taken as an opportunity to re-enter more aggressive strategic shorts. The recent weekly close below 102.10 suggests the market has room to move to 80 in the medium-long term.
الصور المرفقة
نوع الملف: jpg 555.jpg‏ (54.8 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 4)

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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
MAHMOUD_IM is on a distinguished road
افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
14#
31 - 03 - 2008, 10:52 AM
GBPUSD
– Struggling for direction with the pound continuing to lose ground against other peers. Market in range at present with resistance at 2.02 and 2.04. TDST support from the daily charts needs to hold at 1.9718 to prevent a fresh challenge of our key 1.9339 Gann support line which currently protects a test of 1.86-88. If the market is unable to sustain these supports, we feel we could see a collapse to the 1.60 region during 2008. We continue to favour only being flat or short of sterling against pretty much anything.
الصور المرفقة
نوع الملف: jpg 555.jpg‏ (74.4 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
MAHMOUD_IM is on a distinguished road
افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
15#
31 - 03 - 2008, 10:54 AM
EURUSD
Interesting point in the market here with the major posting a 13 count on TD sequentials at the back end of last week to supplement a similar signal on TD Combo from the week before. Coupled with the 13 count buy signal in TD Sequentials for the USD Index, we may find it hard to make significant moves higher here in the very near-term. The associated risk levels for these formations are unusually both at the same level – 1.6140 - and it may be a good opportunity to take a tactical short if we test this level over coming sessions. Admittedly I am a USD bear and am loathed to buy either the USD or the Pound, but the risk reward at 1.6140 would probably be quite attractive given falls to 1.4950-1.5000 are perfectly permissible in the medium-term bullish framework. From a trend following basis, TDMA1 suggests market constructive on closes above 1.5731 tonight
الصور المرفقة
نوع الملف: jpg 555.jpg‏ (64.9 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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بورصات دائما نحو الافضل
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
MAHMOUD_IM is on a distinguished road
افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
16#
31 - 03 - 2008, 10:57 AM
GBPJPY
Market gyrating near the lower limits of the recent range after the 13 count on TD sequentials on the 18th March. We continue to be long-term bears of the cross, targeting 160 during 2008. Major resistance now seen in 205 region. Flat or short continue to be the mantras here.
الصور المرفقة
نوع الملف: jpg 555.jpg‏ (55.6 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 2)

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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
MAHMOUD_IM is on a distinguished road
افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
17#
10 - 06 - 2008, 01:11 PM
اسف للانقطاع
اليوم 10-6-2008

USDJPY Market pushing higher again as Eurodollar futures got a big hit yesterday, increasing the attractiveness of the USD carry trade. Good chance of a continued push higher to test our TDST target at 108.18, and I continue to favour selling any rally to this area as there is a good chance we fail here with the bears reasserting control. TD Sequentials on a 10 count countdown today suggesting a continued advance this week may run out of steam by Friday. 105.70 congestion reverts to support..
الصور المرفقة
نوع الملف: jpg 12.jpg‏ (67.8 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
MAHMOUD_IM is on a distinguished road
افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
18#
10 - 06 - 2008, 01:12 PM
GBPUSD Again failing near the top of the short-term 1.9450 – 1.9850 range. Continue to favour downside resolution, but worth noting the continued underestimation by economists of UK inflation numbers which again forced cable higher yesterday. Initial support at 1.9668 today, but the risk reward at current levels is not fantastic for structural trades especially given the extreme volatility in the respective STIR strips which are currently quite brutal. Downside resolution continues to be favoured, with a close below 1.9339 triggering a sharp fall to 1.86/88. I wouldn’t be holding my breath though…..
الصور المرفقة
نوع الملف: jpg 12.jpg‏ (70.9 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

التوقيع

بورصات دائما نحو الافضل
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MAHMOUD_IM غير متواجد حالياً  
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
MAHMOUD_IM is on a distinguished road
افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
19#
10 - 06 - 2008, 01:14 PM
EURUSD Consolidations eh! Look horrid at the bottom and great at the top. Lots of volatility, time and energy wasted on going nowhere. I continue to feel we’ll be stuck around current levels for some time (at least a month). Medium-term range 1.4950 – 1.6004. Short-term range 1.5282 – 1.5850. Favoured trade, buy with a 1.53 handle, sell with a 1.58 handle. Alternatively, await a dip to 1.50 to enter structural longs or buy a close above 1.6140 aggressively for a sharp move to 1.70
الصور المرفقة
نوع الملف: jpg 12.jpg‏ (70.8 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

التوقيع

بورصات دائما نحو الافضل
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MAHMOUD_IM غير متواجد حالياً  
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
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الصورة الرمزية MAHMOUD_IM
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2008
الدولة: الامارات-دبي
المشاركات: 760
خبرة السوق: أكثر من 5 سنوات
معدل تقييم المستوى: 11
MAHMOUD_IM is on a distinguished road
افتراضي رد: تحليلات مختلفة من مواقع اجنبية "حصريا لمنتديات بورصات"
20#
10 - 06 - 2008, 01:15 PM
USDCHF Unwinding some of Friday’s stock related losses, with the market remaining reactionary, rather than having much of a mind of its own at present. Support seen at 1.0144 ahead of TDST support at 0.9955 and the March reaction lows down at 0.9632. Resistance likely at 1.0349 ahead of 1.0525/32 and 1.0630. A daily close through 1.0630 continues to suggest a rally to TDST resistance at 1.1037, where I would favour entering aggressive structural shorts. We continue to favour the long-term trend of USD bearishness is intact look for the market to trade significantly lower in the months ahead towards the 85 region.
الصور المرفقة
نوع الملف: jpg 12.jpg‏ (69.0 كيلوبايت, المشاهدات 1)

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