Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

NZDUSD Elliott Wave View: Showing impulse

Short term Elliott wave view in NZDUSD suggest that the cycle from 5/11 low (0.6816) is unfolding as an impulsive Elliott wave structure . This 5 wave move could be a wave C of a FLAT correction or wave A of an Elliott wave zigzag structure structure. In either case, after 5 wave move ends, pair should pull back in 3 waves at least as the Elliott Wave Theory suggests. The Minute wave ((i)) ended at (0.6948), Minute wave ((ii)) pullback ended at (0.6880), Minute wave ((iii)) at 0.7121 peak, Minute wave ((iv)) pullback ended at (0.7054) low. Above from there Minute wave ((v)) of C or A already reached the minimum extension area in between inverse 1.236-1.618% extension area of previous wave ((iv)) already at 0.7135-0.7161 area. Which means cycle from 5/11 low (0.6816) is mature and pair can start the 3 waves pullback at any moment.

However as far as dip remains above wave ((iv)) dip (0.7054) & more importantly while the Rsi divergence at the peak stays intact pair may see further advance towards ((v))=((i)) target area at 0.7186-0.7217 area or in case of further strength pair may see 0.618-0.764% fibonacci Extension area of wave ((i))+((iii)) at 0.7243-0.7289 before ending the 5 waves impulse sequence from 5/11 low. Afterwards pair should pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings for the correction of 5/11 cycle or If the decline turns out to be stronger than expected and breaks the pivot at 5/11 low (0.6816) then that would suggest 5 wave move up from 0.6816 low was part of a wave C of a FLAT from 3/09 (0.6889) low and pair may resume lower.

NZDUSD 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

HG#F (Copper) Elliott Wave View: Extension lower

HG#F (Copper) is showing 5 swings incomplete sequence from 2/13/2017 high, preferred Elliott wave view suggests rally to 2.619 completed 6th swing as a FLAT in wave (B) and metal has now resumed the decline in 7th swing. Decline from 2.619 is so far corrective so wave (C) is expected to take the form of an Ending diagonal where wave 1 ended at 2.539 and wave 2 ended at 2.581 as a FLAT. Near-term focus is on 2.526 – 2.500 area to complete 3 waves from wave 2 peak, this area can result in a bounce in 3 waves again which should fail below 2.581 high and more importantly below 2.619 high for extension lower towards 2.376 – 2.2716 area to complete 7 swings from 2/13/2017 high.

HG#F (Copper) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 06/06/2017

AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Mature Cycle

Revised short term AUDUSD Elliott Wave view suggests the rally from 5/9 low is unfolding as a leading diagonal Elliott Wave structure. Up from 5/9 (0.7325) low, Minute wave ((i)) ended at 0.7517, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 0.7368, and Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 0.7566. Minute wave ((iv)) pullback is currently in progress to correct cycle from 6/1 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before pair resumes higher again.

Pair has currently reached 100% from 5/9 low thus cycle from 5/9 low is mature and may end soon. However, pair still has scope to extend one more leg higher in Minute wave ((v)) as far as pivot at 6/1 low (0.7368) stays intact before ending cycle from 5/9 low as a leading diagonal. As cycle from 5/9 low has reached 100%, it’s not a good idea to chase strength at this stage. We don’t like selling the pair either as higher degree trend is bullish and expect pair to correct cycle from 5/9 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing after it completes one more leg higher in Minute wave ((v)).

AUDUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 06/09/2017

ZN (10 Year Treasury Note) and SPX

Many traders around the World keep picking the top in Indices and fail to capitalise on the trend which is to the upside. Recently, we did a blog to explain World Indices could see another huge peak around 2020 – 2022, of course there would be corrections in between but they should offer nothing more than a buying opportunity in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings. Advantage of trading with technique is that even when the trend is extreme, you are trading with a defined risk and get a chance to eliminate risk on the trade as the market bounces from extreme areas after 3 swings, 7 swings or 11 swings. In this video we explain the relationship between ZN (10 Year Treasury Note) and SPX.

ZN (10 Year Treasure Note) and SPX Overlay



Above chart shows ZN (10 Year Treasury Note) has ended the cycle from 2007 low and most likely from 2000 low as well and as far as bounces fail below 2016 and more importantly below 2012 peak, 10 year note prices can drop towards 117 – 114.19 area to finish correcting 2000 cycle and then turn higher again for another monthly cycle or make a larger 3 waves bounce at least. We can see in the above chart that 10 year note formed a peak in 2012 and dropped and SPX rallied. Then we saw another secondary peak in 10 year note in 2016 which was a low in SPX and caused another rally. While below 2016 peak, 10 year note prices should drop further and that should cause SPX rally to extend and it could reach as high as 3133 area by the year 2020 – 22. Therefore, we don’t like picking the tops in Indices and expect buyers to appear in the dips after 3, 7 or 11 swings. When 10 year note prices reach 117 – 114.19 area, Indices would have a chance to form a huge peak and start a larger pull back and that should be a good time to buy 10 year T-note.

Nifty-NSE: Next Warning area for bulls

In June 2015, we mentioned that Nifty-NSE from India was in a warning area for the bulls and a larger correction was expected to take place. Over the next 12 months, Nifty lost 25% dropping from a high of 9119.20 on 3.4.2015 to a low of 6825 on 2.29.2016. However, as we keep mentioning World Indices trend remains up and dips are nothing more than buying opportunity in the right areas, so this dip in this Indian Index was another buying opportunity in the blue box between 7459 – 6721.

Nifty-NSE buying area down from 3.4.2015 peak



Index found buyers in the blue box shown on the chart above and rallied. Index has already made a new high above 9119.20 (3.4.2015) and has opened the next bullish extension. Index is currently showing an incomplete Elliott wave sequence up from 2.29.2016 low which calls for dips to find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings for extension higher.

Nifty-NSE 10053 – 100562 is next warning area for bulls


Index is showing an incomplete Elliott wave sequence which means dips should remain supported for more upside. As dips hold above 5.24.2017 low and more importantly above 4.19.2017 low, expect the Index to find buyers in the dips in 3, 7 or 11 swings for extension higher towards 10053 – 10562 area. This area is close to the upper channel line as well and could contain the rally in the Index or at least slow it down. This means bulls should stay in control in rest of the Indices also like $SPX $INDU $FTSE $DAX $NASDAQ and $IBEX etc until Nifty doesn’t reach the above mentioned area. From 10049 – 10557 area, we can see a larger 3 waves pull back in the Nifty to correct the cycle from 2.29.2016 low or at least from 12.26.2016 low.

GBPJPY Elliott Wave Analysis: Extension Lower

Short term GBPJPY Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from 5/10 high shows a 5 swing sequence, thus favoring more downside. Decline from 5/10 high is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 5/10 peak (148.11), Minor wave W ended at 141.47 and Minor wave X ended at 143.96. Minor wave Y is currently in progress and has scope to retest 4/16 low (135.58). Support can be seen at 135.7 – 137.3 area for at least 3 waves bounce.

Subdivision of Minor wave Y is proposed to be unfolding as a triple three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 6/1 peak (143.96), Minute wave ((w)) ended at 140.68, Minute wave ((x)) ended at 142.77, Minute wave ((y)) ended at 139.52 and Minute second wave ((x)) ended at 141.11. Near term, while Minutte wave (x) bounce stays below 141.11, and more importantly below 143.95, expect pair to extend lower. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce.

GBPJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart 06/13/2017

Can Ripple catch the rally of Bitcoin & Ethereum

Ripple is the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, after Bitcoin and Ethereum. It’s distributed financial technology allows banks to efficiently settle transactions in real time. An alternative to today’s global payment infrastructure, Ripple eliminates time delays and ensures certainty of settlement, resulting in lower transaction costs for banks and their customers and unlocking new revenue opportunities.

Since the start of 2017, crypto-currencies dominated the global market with huge gains and every trader / investor is buying these assets or looking to exchange it against each other . We pointed out last year to the potential rise of Bitcoin and recently explained how Ethereum is leading the move to the upside, but Ripple has been lagging the recent move so let’s see if it will be able to catch up .

XRP is the native currency of ripple and only exists within the network, so we’ll be using XRP/USD and compare it to both BTCUSD & ETHUSD.


XRPUSD had a significant peak on 05/17 and then dropped for 70% before placing a low on 05/27 same as the rest of crypto-currencies. Since then Ripple only saw a shallow bounce before staying sideways to lower, while ETHUSD saw an impressive +200% increase in value compared to +45% for Bitcoin.

Ripple Elliott Wave Technical Chart
Despite the 40% drop since June the 1st , XRPUSD is reaching a short term extreme area at equal legs ( $0.2324 – $0.1893 which will provide a floor as buyers are expected to show up for a 3 waves bounce at least from there. The Instrument already ended a double three correction at 05/27 low ( $0.1190 ), so while the instrument stays above that level then it should be able to rally for new all time highs with a minimum target at $0.55 area.



Recap
The Ripple protocol has been increasingly adopted by banks and payment networks as settlement infrastructure technology , it’s system have a number of advantages over other cryptocurrencies, that’s why it’s being used by companies such as UniCredit, UBS & Santander. So the digital coin looks to have a bright future as it will be implemented in the financial system and despite its current low price it can catch up the move to the upside really quickly.

General Electric $GE Bounce is from Technicals or Jeff Immelt’s Resignation?

Firstly, I suspect the bounce is technical or at a minimum immaculate timing of the news to go with the technical view. This large multinational organization & conglomerate’s CEO of the past few years Jeff Immeltjust announced he would resign from General Electric and there is an apparent bounce in price on the day of the announcement. This company that really needs no introduction is one of the largest companies in the world and has been around 125 plus years now and is one of the $DJIA Dow Industrial Average’s thirty components as well as one of the $SPX Standard and Poor’s 500 components and is into many different markets where they sell their broad based goods and services. Without further comment on the fundamental and financials of the organization I will stick with the idea the company will find the way to remain profitable and achieve further growth although that becomes harder as time goes on in a larger company’s life cycle.

Secondly, the daily chart’s technical picture of the stock from an Elliott Wave perspective is shown below under the end of this article however not shown here in the aforementioned graphic the stock has been in an uptrend since inception with an all time high at 60.50 in the week of 8/28/2000 then for several years suffered the 3 swings lower pullback into the week of 3/2/2009 to a price low at 5.73. From there the stock has lagged it’s underlying indices $SPX and $INDU and has not matched the cycle highs when it bounced and has been the worst performing stock of the $INDU as of late. This is usually an obvious technical red flag when a stock does not run the same cycle with the underlying index it is a component of.

Thirdly, and to conclude. From 3/2/2009 the stock price shows 5 swings up into the 33.00 price registered on 7/20/16 that I’m suggesting & as shown below is a larger degree diagonal ((A)) or even a ((1)) possibly. The dip was a larger 3 swings and appears to have been correcting the cycle up from 2009. As mentioned earlier “I suspect the bounce is technical or at a minimum immaculate timing of the news to go with the technical view”. As you can notice the bounce began about three weeks before the resignation of Jeff Immelt. Price did swing lower into the extension area we will normally expect a bounce from. The sequence and move lower from the 7/20/2016 highs appears to have ended that cycle lower per our usual trend following system here thus when dips are seen, we will look for them to remain above the 27.10 lows for a sustained move higher.

Kind regards & good luck trading.